A Big Thanks...

...to all the loyal visitors over the last couple years. And an apology for not being current as of late, and no, the blog and website are not dead. I have been quite the busy person these days, and any time that I do find to devote to craps and blackjack is spent either practicing or playing in AC.

Best of luck to you all, and check back in the future!

Why Bet Like This?!?

In the post, My Preferred Betting Scheme, I had summarized my approach to wagering on my own AP Craps skills. For the most part, this is still how I do it. Pass Line, Odds, Place 6 &8, and Place 4 & 10 are still my core bets, and provide me with the best opportunities to consistently profit with as little exposure to loss as possible. At this point in time, my OAP is still in the 4.0 neighborhood on a consistent basis, so what does this mean for me?

Since that original post, my thinking towards the Odds bet has shaped up. Yes, I have always held it to be a powerful wager, for both random players and APs. And yes, it is still an "accessory" to the associated line bet. But the Pass Line wager is a prerequisite to shooting the dice, so the mental separation of Pass Line and Odds bets is necessary. It should be apparent that the line bet is mathematically favorable during the come-out roll for the do-side player, but does a 180 once the point is established. The AP puts this factor behind him/her, and moves on to capitalizing on the Odds bet.

I've mentioned before that my betting approach is proportional, but yet diversified. By proportional, I mean that the total amount of my action is divvied up among the bets roughly according to the edges I've worked towards. And by diversified, I mildly spread my action to cover 2 different numbers (1 being the point number). Follow me as we walk through my mind during my time to shoot the dice (honestly, it's not that scary of a place):

AT THE COME-OUT:

Honestly, I bet table minimum during the come-out roll 90% of the time, with that 10% coming in the latter portion of sessions where I am dialed in and feeling very confident in hitting a natural 7 or two. My reasoning for low-rolling at table minimum is that the Pass Line bet, while very advantageous for that initial roll, becomes a liability once the point number has been established. In fact, a "perfect" on-axis roller (OAP 1) can't flip the severe disadvantage...see page 106 of my electronic book for the exact numbers.

With this in mind, I find it important to save my chips for more advantageous wagers during the point cycle. Operating at about OAP 4, my potential edge on the Pass Line bet is approximately 40%. My personal goal is to work that OAP down to 3...at that point, my expectation would be over 55%!

POINT OF 6/8

Once the point number is established as either 6 or 8, my decision is very simple: take Odds and Place the opposite 6 or 8, whichever is not the point number. Both of these wagers are made at the same level. Why? At OAP 4, the approximate potential edge on the Odds bet is 8% and the Place bet is 7%. Again, when I am able to work the OAP down to 3, I should be looking at advantages of 10.67% and 9.65%, respectively.

POINT OF 5/9

With a point of 5 or 9, I must make a decision due to my conservative betting style (which I believe helps a little bit with covering my AP intentions). That decision is which Place bet to make with the Odds: 6 or 8? These days, I am looking at a 5% edge with the Odds and 7% when Placing either the 6 or 8. At the OAP 3 level, the Odds would return 6.67% and the Place bet, 9.65%. With my current abilities in mind, I make the Odds and Place wagers at the same unit level since the Place 6 or 8 requires multiples of $6, the ratio of money bet on Place to Odds is close to the 7:5 ratio with the edges.

POINT OF 4/10

Finally, these point numbers offer bigger payouts than the other four, but at slightly smaller advantages. With the Odds bet potentially having a 6.5% edge, and the Place bet on the opposite 4 or 10 having a 5.5% edge, it can be tough to differentiate the bet levels between the two. Depending on what my unit level is (based on success at that point), my wagers on the Odds and Place are more than likely the same. If my Odds bet is at $30, than I will usually Place the opposite for $25. Interestingly enough, when I am able to get down to OAP 3, the Place bet will move to 8.33% and the Odds to 8.89%. But for now, I bet to my current skill level.

Putting a Number on the Odds Bet

The Odds bet should be any craps player's best friend, let alone the AP Craps player. Odds start out as a no-edge wager, so even a random shooter is playing on a level field with the house. I've probably led folks to the wrong conclusion in early posts on this blog and my electronic book Hot Hand Craps: Play With an Advantage by lumping the Pass Line and Odds wagers together. Yes, you can't made an Odds bet without playing the Line, but they must be separated to evaluate which wagers to be made during the point-cycle. I'll get into my current betting approach in the next post, but here are the adjusted player advantages for Odds bets on all three number pairs:

POINT 6/8 (via Flying V):
OAP 1 +32.00%
OAP 3 +10.67%
OAP 5 +6.40%
OAP 7 +4.57 %
OAP 9 +3.56%

POINT 5/9 (via Flying V or Mini V):
OAP 1 +20.00%
OAP 3 +6.67%
OAP 5 +4.00%
OAP 7 +2.86%
OAP 9 +2.22%

POINT 4/10 (via Mini V):
OAP 1 +25.00%
OAP 3 +8.33%
OAP 5 +5.00%
OAP 7 +3.57%
OAP 9 +2.78%

You Can't Get Far Without Executing

EXECUTION. It is the essence of the on-axis throw critical to the success of AP Craps. Notwithstanding “betting off of” another AP, you don’t gain an edge over the house in this game without being able to exert some level of consistent physical command over the dice. As a refresher, I’ve got a couple links to some old posts below regarding how to find your dice-throwing technique:

Technique is in the Hand of the Diceholder

Makin' the Dice Dance

In order to avoid a post that is nothing but recycled material, I want to add a few more points about translating a successful throw from the practice table to the live table. Especially via the internet, it is nearly impossible (and pretty much futile) to dictate a specific throwing technique that will universally work for each prospective AP. It’s like a golf swing or a baseball swing in that variations of a general technique are needed to fit individual anatomies.

Be comfortable when you are up to throw. Stressed-out muscles can often alter your technique, especially if you are relaxed in your practice sessions. A different technique when money is on the line just might take your potential advantage and flush it down the drain. Deep breathing and/or a conscious effort to slow the heart rate helps. Of course, so can having a drink or two…yes, you heard me say something that many “pros” strongly advocate against. But if you can handle some alcohol, slow consumption of beer or cocktails could be your muscles’ friend!

Limit those marathon sessions to shorter periods of time. Being on your feet for hours at a time has an affect on your performance. Tired and sore leg muscles and joints can ripple upwards, resulting in poor performance from the upper body. Try to have your sessions last for no more than 45 minutes to 1 hour, depending on how conditioned your body is. And, of course, sit down in between sessions and stay hydrated and fed. Fatigue is not the AP’s friend.

Stay away from overcrowded tables. Nobody likes being sandwiched when throwing the dice, especially someone who is looking for precision. Crowded tables typically bring about a couple other negative side effects: longer times between your turns to shoot, and much more chip interference in your shooting lane. Always be prepared with “target practice” so your shots can be aimed away from chips down on the other end, but why take the chance when emptier tables have less interference?

Practice hard, play smart, and stay strong. Play with an advantage!

Staying in the Present

The Hot Hand Craps Advantage-Play approach offers the skilled player a simplified opportunity to gain an edge over the casino with the following three steps:

1) Develop a consistent on-axis throwing ability applicable in the casino.
2) Determine OAP and tailor use of sets and betting strategies to your skill level.
3) EXECUTE!!!

The topic of this post is to understand the difference between expectation and reality in regard to how your skill may translate to an individual craps session. First, let’s expand the OAP (On-Axis Proportion) concept. This measurable takes a player’s number of confirmed successful on-axis rolls and divides it over the total number of throws (which can be purely casino play, or a combination of casino and practice play ONLY if the practice table has the necessary elements such as the pyramid rubber walls). Pretty straightforward, right?

Simplicity can be a strength, and it is in this case. Consistency is key in having a reliable OAP assessment…so a low, but consistent OAP is more of an asset that an inconsistent high OAP.

SIDE NOTE: A “high OAP” means that a player has a higher proportion of on-axis rolls to total rolls. This is counterintuitive since OAP 3 is “higher” than OAP 5 for this reason.

OAP can often be a moving target in regard to how a player may improve or regress over a period of time. Then again, it may not if the skill plateaus to a constant level/range. And this is not necessarily a bad thing if the “plateaued” OAP is in a range that can earn you an advantage in most or all scenarios. Because I am constantly working on my skill and applying it in the casinos, I use the “Rolling OAP” as my current measurement.


THE ROLLING OAP

I like to keep an up-to-date OAP measurement based on my last 10 sessions or so. These sessions consist of both in-casino trips and in-house practice runs. My practice runs are usually hour-long trials where I net 80-100 rolls. In a good session at the casino, it’s hard to ballpark how many rolls since they vary depending on conditions. But 10 sessions of either or a combination works for me.

Using the latest 10 allows for a change in skill in the short term, and this amount of trials usually fits in a window of a month, or less sometimes. I keep track of each session’s results and ultimately get them into an Excel spreadsheet for longevity sake. But knowing what my current OAP is before heading out for a live session helps me formulate my betting attack, which depends on where the money can be made based on the potential player advantage for my core bets.

Another thing to think about: notwithstanding ambidextrous players, many prefer to shoot from one side of the table over the other. So OAP will likely be different from a stick right (SR) position than the stick left (SL) position. Be sure to evaluate OAP separately from each side so as not to inflate or shrink the metric by blending them together.


HOTHANDCRAPS.COM NOTES

The Hot Hand Craps: Play With an Advantage .PDF book is available on the website. Work on a second book will begin in due time with a deeper look into AP Craps topics and how to round out your game.

Good luck out there!!!

Refinement via Minimalism

The physical aspect of successful AP Craps play often dominates many players' efforts and aspirations to gain an edge over the house. But as I have stated in numerous posts in the past, the physical aspect should only be half of your game. The mental game is just as important...what are the dice "saying" to you?...what should you be betting on?...and in what proportion?

Regardless of how you measure your AP Craps skill (OAP, SRR, results from thousands of rolls per set, etc.), it is very important to take the time necessary to evaluate how this skill affects the house's edge on a variety of bets. Depending on your betting philosophy, the breadth of your bet wheelhouse may vary. For myself, I look to gain an edge with Odds and Place bets, but the Field can prove advantageous in certain situations. Others may develop ample skill to work Hardways and Horn components into their game, but I am a simplistic bettor. Here's how:

Once into the point-cycle phase (which constitutes a majority of a typical successful dice hand), I utilize a minimalistic approach. By minimalistic, I mean 2 or 3 core wagers. Yes, 2 or 3. Some folks may get the wrong idea about AP Craps, in that your intent is to roll numbers upon numbers from 2 to 12 and back down the line again. Well, I hate to say that it don't really work that way. Effective refined advantage play is not only about avoiding the 7 during the point-cycle, but refining your target numbers for the given set, determined by the situation (namely your point number).

Refining your targets is key to minimzing your outlay of wagers in terms of how thinly you may be spread. Remember, the more numbers you are betting on, the more hits it generally takes to flip a profit on a given roll. Concentrating your action on a couple or 3 bets reduces the number of winners needed to get you into the black, generally speaking. In fact, you could take the same amount that would be spread on the inside, outside, or all the way across box numbers and concentrate it on your Odds and another Place bet or two.

But it's all about what percent edge you are looking at for each of those bets. Taking the following example edges and associated bets where the point number has been established as 5 for a particular set with your skill level...

ODDS 5: 10%
PLACE 4: -3%
PLACE 6: 5%
PLACE 8: 5%
PLACE 9: 2%
PLACE 10: -3%

...it would appear that the money to be made is in nailing that 5 right then and there. But short-run variance can produce unpredictable things. So play the percentages to spread your action MINIMALLY where the highest edges lie. The Odds 5 wager has twice as much potential as do the Place 6 & 8 wagers, which are very solid at 5%. Placing the 9 has less potential for profit, and would put your past that over-extension threshhold (in my opinion). As a general rule of thumb here, your Odds bet would be the same amount as the Place 6 & 8 bets combined. Granted, they probably won't be in these exact proportions due to the $6 increments required for the Place bets, but you should get the idea.

I fear that I've rambled a bit too much, but I hope that these, and other, concepts that constitute the mental game CARRY AS MUCH IMPORTANCE AS the ability to influence the dice consistently. When at the casino, knowing your potential edges for each situation is a must. Take the time to study the dice, understand your skill, and know how to bet.


As far as the Hot Hand Craps website is concerned, I must apologize for my turtle-paced work on enriching its content. Between the "real world" and putting in mucho practice on the craps table upstairs, my work on the second book and video instruction is in a holding pattern. Thanks for your patience.

Random Thoughts On, Well, Randomness

Fighting the "random" monster at the craps table is what AP Craps play is all about. The basics are simple enough in theory: restrict the range of outcomes that the dice may produce, bet to the "new" restricted probabilities, and let the math take over in the long run. The physical aspect is executing a consistent ratio of controlled on-axis throws. But in the casino, the deck is stacked against you. Three key reasons why: diamond rubber on the walls, padding under the surface, and obstructions on the layout.

First and most effective, the house puts this "randomizing" material on the walls to take careening dice and throw them off erratically. In my opinion, there is no real way to mimic the interaction between the dice and this surface at home without at least one piece of this stuff. It's not cheap, but you can find quality materials at sites like discountcasinogear.com (I plug them from time to time because I have had great experiences with them for items like the wall sections -- 11"x4' @$44 -- dice, and chips).

But I digress...the dice are more than likely to lose any player-given control over their rotation when they strike this surface. I say "more than likely" instead of an absolute like "always" because I have noticed some interesting things with quite a bit of practice on the home table lately (I consider myself fortunate to have made time, freed up some resources, and worked on the skills to create the great beginnings for a 12' table on the third floor). It is essential for the dice to strike the rear wall (if they even make it there...which is a whole other discussion on casino tolerance) with their last gasp of momentum. Preferably they will hit at the base, where it is just a bevel that will accept a flush on-axis die without much negative reflex.

The bigger issue is when a die hits the pyramid area that is constructed with 45 degree angles up, down, left, or right. It is this area that often delivers a knock-out blow to an on-axis roll attempt. But not always. In fact, some wall hits can result in either a knock-down or spin reflex. The knock-down typically comes about when the die hits the underside of the pyramid and further deadens it. Spin shots are a little more curious, and are actually the impetus for my motivation to post after a long evening.

Spin, in this context, is put on the die by the pyramid and is not necessarily a bad thing when an on-axis approach is maintained until impact. The spin occurs when the fading die strikes the side of the pyramid...the die no longer rotates around the desired rotational axis, but in such a way where the top number stays on top as the new spin takes place. This can often happen without detriment to the on-axis intent. Yes, this may make me sound like a total fool...but it is an observation that I have made on quite a few occasions lately. The home environment affords me greater concentration in following the dice from my hand to their resting place (man, that sounds pretty serious!). Wish I could demonstrate it, but I may be able to some day in the near future with video on this blog or the website. Either way, try to be on the lookout for these interesting aspects of craps physics.


The above picture shows the 1/4" underlayment of Volara foam I used to soften the surface of my home table. I believe it is a realistic compromise of the forgiving hard surfaces of the good ol' days and the more modern craps table feels. It should also help the rather expensive layout wear much better than if it were right on top of plywood. This does not mimic the extreme bounciness employed by some casinos (e.g. Trump Taj Mahal and Borgata in AC) as I have no interest in playing at those locations...

...because an overly bouncy table is more apt to "add" too much to the roll of the dice. By adding to the roll, I mean create a springboard effect that does not help reduce momentum going into the wall. For the reasons noted in the wall surface discussion, too much juice coming in is a bad thing. As a rule of thumb, harder tables accept a higher-arcing toss better, which allows for a stop-n-drop with little or no movement from the dice once they hit the table. These tables are an AP's friend, but the slightly-padded versions don't have to be your enemy.


Finally, obstructions on the table (CHIPS) are sometimes a necessary evil in the craps game. The easiest way to avoid this is to seek empty or near-empty tables...which is always a plus for those playing with an edge over the house: put the dice in your hands more often, and the numbers will take care of themselves quicker. But playing with other folks at the table usually means their bets will be in the way of your toss.

For a player who puts practice time in, at least half of that time should be spent with wagers on the opposite end of the layout. A couple Pass Line with Odds wagers is the norm, as are Place bets, and perhaps a Come and Field bet. The AP who spends some time on semi-full tables must be proficient in target shooting. I've always advocated being able to aim at and nail a 6" or so diameter circle with proficiency. However, this circle may need to be in a different location per table, per hand, or even per throw.

Somebody on the end going "off and on" with Come bets may require you to target the DC box. A superstitious Field player will likely require you to stay down the Come box alley. And the standard $64 across Place bettor keeps the Place bet alley out of bounds more often than not. Practice with different combinations of other player's chip locations and your experiences in the casino should benefit greatly.

Good Luck!!!

Back to Practice

Sorry I don't have a whole lot of craps insight for you folks these days, as things have been very busy with the holidays and house renovations. However, we've had a little time here and there to get the craps table in a crude, but practicable state! A small victory for the Hot Hand Craps team, but a decent accomplishment so far. Check out some progress pics:



The diamond walls are in, giving the rear walls the necessary surface to replicate what the casinos throw at ya. The layout is a full 12' size, which is underlain by 1/4" Volara, a dense foam material that will help the layout last a lot longer as well as give more of a challenge due to the bounce. Instead of a rigged up practice station at the old place, I've got a full-blown 12' table...but there is still quite a bit of work to do on it before the details are done.

What You May Read...

…is not always necessarily true.

On the Craps Pit message board recently, a couple members called into question some figures I posted regarding the advantage a player could gain on some Place bets with an OAP of 5 (consistent 20% on-axis proportion). The thought of gaining an edge by only throwing the dice on-axis 20% of the time was apparently ridiculous, but I tend to disagree...after all, I have to defend my numbers. Instead, it was suggested that the baseline percentage everything should be measured against is (drum roll, please): 44.4%. Huh?!?

This number left me scratching my head and pleading the author to explain where this number came from. Another generous member stated that it is the result of dividing 16 by 36. Ah ha! Thanks to my handy calculator, I can absolutely confirm that 16/36 is, in fact, 44.4%. But is it accurate to say that any percentage of on-axis throws to all throws below 44.4% is nothing more than random??? That, my friends, is the question that I am going to answer.


THE IMPORTANCE OF THESE NUMBERS

…does not come when you divide them, in my opinion. We need to look at why “16” and “36” are important, if they aren’t already glaring at you. First, “16” is the number of outcomes possible when the dice are restricted to rotation around only one axis (an on-axis roll). Second, “36” is the total number of outcomes that the dice can produce. Simply dividing the one by the other, and using the result as a benchmark for success is completely misleading. Think about this: if you take the 16 outcomes for each of the 6 axis arrangements (pre-sets), and multiplied them together, you end up with 96 combinations! This is way more than the 36 shown in the typical outcome “pyramid”. Something just doesn’t add up here.


A LOGIC EXPERIMENT

The array of 16 outcomes for a given pre-set is not exclusive to that particular one. Let’s make an example out of the Hard 8, an outcome where there is one, and only one, way to roll it: with a 4 on one die and a 4 on the other. But if you take the dice and fidget with them, you realize that the Hard 8 exists in THREE different pre-sets’ possible outcome lists. A 1-6 / 1-6 can be on the rotational axis, a 1-6 / 2-5 can be there too, and so can the 2-5 / 2-5. Therefore, the Hard 8 is not exclusive to one pre-set…and this applies to every single combination that the dice can give you.

What does this non-exclusivity mean for the AP Craps player? Well, if you had set the dice on the Flying V (a.k.a. 3V set) with the 1-6 on one die’s rotational axis, and the 2-5 on the other, the Hard 8 is one of the 16 possible outcomes from a successful on-axis throw. But just because the Hard 8 appears does not make the throw on-axis. (Confucius couldn’t have said that any better.) This is because the Hard 8 is possible with three different pre-sets, one of which was your choice for that roll: the Flying V. In the Hot Hand Craps world, the sole measure of a throw being on-axis is whether the dice stay on that prescribed axis from start to finish…not what number comes out of it. Now you can see why this is the only way to measure it: the numbers on top can show up in multiple sets.


OAP IS NOT A MATH TRICK

So, to simply say that a successful AP Craps player must keep the dice on-axis at least 44.4% of the time does not coincide with my approach to gaining an edge in this game. Hey, a player who has an OAP 2.25 (that’s 44.4% of the time on-axis) is VERY successful, so I do have to say that. But the statement that anything below that percentage is just random is extremely out of context.

In addition, the OAP measurement is unique because it is the purest measurement of on-axis throwing proficiency. The observations needed to determine it are either YES, the throw stayed on-axis or NO, it did not. It does not look at what numbers are on top of the dice since that can be misleading, as we have just shown. You’re either on, or you’re off. And knowing your skill level lets you understand what edge you can gain with a particular wager, with a particular pre-set, in a particular phase of the game. The simplicity is mind-blowing, but yet so profound.

good luck!!!

The Next Best Thing

After a recent move into our three story row house, I decided to take the plunge and build a 12' casino-style craps table in the third floor "Penthouse". For a guy with plenty of other projects around a 100+ year house, this is definitely a work in progress. My web page www.hothandcraps.com is following its construction, but I thought I would touch on the advantages of having a full size craps table at home.


There is no better experience than throwing dice in the casino, on their turf, in that environment. That being said, practicing solely in the casino can be costly. Prior to this project, my practice consisted of using an existing table to hold my surface and makeshift wall. It's time to take my practice to another level with the 12 footer. Even though construction materials, a casino-quality layout, and other accoutrement like the pricey diamond wall segments are not cheap, this is a necessary move to further work on my AP Craps skills.

As I've harped on over and over in this blog, the physical half of AP Craps consists of several elements. The landing and interaction with the wall are the pieces that truly need a casino-esque facility to practice on. The layout and more diamond wall segments are on order, and construction is under way.

Good Luck!!!

Workin' on a Website

The HOT HAND CRAPS blog has been a forum for me to share my thoughts on this wonderful game of craps for a while now. As any regular viewer has probably noticed over the last several months, there really hasn't been any new information posted. This is due to several reasons, mostly pertaining to the busy life I have but also because I have been working on developing a craps book that starts with the basics and flows on through to a solid introduction of the Advantage-Play Craps perspective that I use.

Well, my venture into authorship is alive and well but my busy mind never rests. I've got enough material to fill another volume; material that takes an advanced look into AP Craps. But the first book needs to hit the printer and get on the market first. And the subject of this post, a website, is yet another exciting project that I am starting on...tonight!

HotHandCraps.com

HotHandCraps.com is going to be the portal into the Hot Hand Craps world of printed media, e-resources, and eventually instructional DVDs. It's all part of my lofty dream, but shares time with a day job and life in a new (over 100 year old, actually) house! Please be patient and stop by the website to see the progress. I see it starting out being propped up by subject material posted here and evolving into a way to sample the goods I just mentioned.

Better get to work...

Good luck out there!!!

Been A While

Months to be exact. No new info has been posted since April, but I am happy to say that my work in creating a book may not be for naught...talks are proceeding to see something come to life.

On-Axis is the Key

In the last post, we looked at the relationship of Pro-7 dice sets and Anti-7 sets. With twice as many ways to roll the Anti-7 sets than the Pro-7 ones, there has to be a way to take advantage of this inherent trait, right?

Let's look at what this proportion means to the occurrence of the powerful 7: There's three combinations of the Pro-7 sets (1-1, 2-2, 3-3) with four out of sixteen ways to throw a 7. On the flip side, there's six combinations of the Anti-7 sets (1-2, 2-1, 1-3, 3-1, 2-3, 3-2) and only TWO out of sixteen ways to throw the 7. Doing some quick math, that equates to a 16.67% probability of rolling that 7...right on track with conventional methods of determining that figure (i.e. 6/36). This confirms that this point of view is a valid way of looking at the dice probabilities.

How does one manipulate the ratio of Pro-7 and Anti-7 axes to reduce (or enhance if you wish) the occurrence of the 7? I think it's safe to say that some form of influence needs to be put on the dice to do so. Looking back at the last post, what one would be looking for is a consistent rotation of only one of the dice at the conclusion of the roll. If the pre-set is to a Pro-7 axis (therefore, a pair is represented on the axis), rotation off of that axis for only one die will put it on an Anti-7 axis. If this is done consistently, and one can shift that ratio of Pro-7 to Anti-7 axis results towards more Anti-7 results, then there may be a way to reduce the percentage of 7 outcomes.

But that leaves us with a couple questions to ask:

1) If one die can be maintained on axis while the other rotates off axis consistently, how is this any less difficult than "traditional" on-axis dice control? Honestly, I don't think that is necessarily any easier, but it could be a viable alternative. In my eyes, this still requires a certain level of skilled throwing. Instead of producing reliable on-axis throws, this method would require one on- and the other off-axis. Perhaps this is somewhat of a "genetic defect" of an on-axis throw effort that does not pan out. This may work for some, but should be tracked accordingly, because...

2) Can setting the dice to a Pro-7 axis backfire to a dice controller of any level of skill? Certainly it could. If you, as a shooter, can keep the dice on axis at a level to where it is giving you an advantage, pre-setting the dice to a Pro-7 axis (this is assuming a right-side player not on the come out roll) is counter-intuitive. I see this version of DC as a backup plan where a sufficient level of on-axis throws cannot be achieved. But this concept will NOT offer a random shooter any level of advantage.

So, for me, it's all about keeping the dice on-axis. Knowing that a substantial advantage is out there with a 1 in 3 OAP (on-axis proportion), I continue to work on that form of craps AP. I feel that my game offers me at least a break-even long-run proposition at this point. But practice at home and work in the casino continues.

Is There Another Way?

After years of playing, I've been looking to gain an advantage in the great game of craps. At first, it consisted of betting systems and money management...but that alone won't turn the house's game into your pay day consistently. There's no betting scheme that can reverse the long-run inherent odds of the individual or combined bets. So that led me to seriously study the realm of dice control/influencing several years back. And in practicing, playing, and reflecting on the subject, some interesting things keep popping their heads up. Is there an alternative to on-axis throwing?

I do not wish to reverse what I have learned, practice, and implement to this day, but one cannot ignore trends that consistently become apparent. And what I am referring to is what happens when the dice do not stay on axis through the course of the roll. We all know of the pitfalls that can thwart any valiant attempt, including chips on the layout and the diamond rubber back wall...and those are just things that aren't necessarily under your control. You still have to produce a release, flight, and landing that facilitate on-axis results. And that is what I strive for on a consistent basis. Remember, a hefty advantage can be gained by keeping the dice on the prescribed axis one in three rolls.

But those off axis throws seem to have a deeper meaning. Stick with me here for a minute or two. A good throw that does not produce an on-axis result often "misses" because of a minor rotation of a die through the course of the roll. And that's all it takes to spoil the best of intentions. Of course, good throwing technique combined with one ounce of error appears to produce some reliable results. "Huh?" you may ask, but let's try to work through the logic on this idea:

First, there are 6 possible axis "sets". For on-axis controlled throws, I only use 3 of them...1 for coming out (lots of sevens, no horn) and 2 for during the course of the point (box numbers, less sevens). But to expand our view of these sets, let's look at which ones are favorable for sevens and which diminish them (you can peruse past posts for more clarity on the sets themselves if you need)...

Hardway Set (1-1 on axis) - 4 ways to make a seven
All Sevens (2-2 on axis) - 4 ways to make a seven
Straight Sixes (3-3 on axis) - 4 ways to make a seven
Flying V (1-2 on axis) - 2 ways to make a seven
Mini V (1-3 on axis) - 2 ways to make a seven
2-3V (2-3 on axis) - 2 ways to make a seven


I think we can see the pattern here...dice sets that have pairs of numbers on the axes are more conducive to sevens occuring (25% chance) than those sets without pairs on the axes (12.5% chance). That's a good observation, and to make it simpler down the line, we'll group them as Pro-7 and Anti-7 Sets. In this context, we are now concerning ourselves with what is the end result of the roll since the alternative assumption is that the dice will finish with a minor change from the pre-set axis arrangement (i.e. looking at the erroneous, or unsuccessful, throws).

Let's take the Hardways Set in the following example. 1-1 is on the axis at the beginning of the roll, but if there is a deviation of one die from this prescribed axis (i.e. it flips over another axis), you will now have either the 2 or the 3 in that die's axis when it comes to rest. No longer is it on the 1-1 axis, it is on the 1-2 or 1-3 axes. Your pre-set has gone from the Hardways Set (Pro-7) to the Flying V or Mini-V sets (Anti-7) by the time the dice stop.

For the next exercize, we'll pre-set the Flying V set, which has 1-2 on the axis. Assuming the same as above, one die will be caused to flip over another axis. We'll say that the die rotating around the 2 will come off-axis, and will rest with either the 1-1 or 1-3 in the axis. Your pre-set has gone from the Flying V (Anti-7) set to either the Mini-V (also Anti-7) or the Hardways Set (Pro-7). This isn't quite as definitive as the above example. And if you worked through these trials with the other four sets, you'll find that they share the same properties as these, depending on whether they are Pro-7 or Anti-7 to begin with.

What has tuned me into these thoughts are observations at home and in the casino. My inquiring mind wonders what kind of results are appearing in those rolls that don't stay on axis through the course of the action. Because I use a consistent throw, my "misses" generally mean that one die has gone astray. However, and I must be brutally honest here, honing in on that 1:3 or 1:4 mark of on-axis proportion rolls is a very difficult feat for me. Can there be another way to take advantage of these near misses, or is it all just random no matter what? Or is there a more efficient way to gain an advantage in this game? I hope to be able to sink my teeth into those questions here soon. Either way, I'm still practicing and playing.

A True Trifecta

I wanted to take this time to digress a bit from the prime topic of this blog: craps. Actually, I just want to put the game in perspective of my overall AP (Advantage Play) gambling repertoire...craps, blackjack, and horse handicapping (hence, the trifecta). Of course, there are pitfalls with each of these games, and I'll explain why below:

BLACKJACK (or 21). One of the most-popular non-slot games in the casino, this card game offers the player options on how they want to play their cards during the course of the hand. The most common (but not only) form of AP blackjack play is counting cards. The basic premise of counting cards combines alterations to playing strategy and betting strategy based on how favorable the remaining cards are to the player.

Challenges: AP blackjack has "caught on" for the most part with the mainstream gambler. Realistically, card counting has had a visible effect on casinos' profits for decades, but the house has generally clamped down on the rules of the game to offset more folks playing with an advantage (I am admittedly part of the problem). You can see these effects with 8-deck shoes, no mid-shoe entry rules, 6:5 payouts on natural blackjacks, shallower cuts into decks & shoes, etc. And to top that all off, casinos can ask you to leave if they think that you hold an advantage (not so in Atlantic City, but they have different ways to cut that advantage down).

How to Cope: Most of those aforementioned challenges to AP blackjack play require more discipline and a bigger bankroll. A larger bet spread is needed when more decks are used in the shoe (less money wagered without an advantage, more money with it), but more importantly, one must really play only when there is an advantage...come in with one, and leave when it's gone.


HORSE HANDICAPPING. One often equates handicapping (horses or sports) with having an advantage, but many handicappers don't take the time to do their own research...they use tip sheets or other sources. A day or evening at the races has always been a pastime of mine, but it has only been recently that I have taken the time to develop a consistent way to rate horses based on past performances. This method considers the key factors (in my eyes) of class, consistency, and current form. Simple enough, but it helps me to find winners since I rarely, if ever, rely on exotic bets to come home a winner.

Challenges: Although the house has no problems with winning bettors in this game (because it gets its cut no matter who wins), it is often the other bettors that pose an obstruction to taking home more cash. Huh? Well, the amount of money that a winning horse returns is proportional to how much money has been wagered on it. More money = less of a cut. The biggest disappointment is scouting and betting a strong entry that all the money happens to be on.

How to Cope: If there isn't a strong candidate to win any given race according to my rating, I sit it out. No clear favorite means there is no advantage from my perspective. However, I have been known to bet a quinella or exacta box where there are two clear strong entries. With respect to the popular choice watering down a return on my winning selection, I must say that I look for a horse to go off at least 2:1 odds in order to bet it. My goal, which is to pull down a 40% winning percentage (and has been achievable to date), will return nice profits when my rating system aligns with horses that return at least that much.


CRAPS. I'd say that my AP approach to craps is well documented on this blog. And the key pitfall with craps is that the only true way to gain an advantage is through the use of a physical skill to confine the dice' outcome to a pre-determined set. If that skill is inconsistent or just plain off in a gambling session, your results are pretty much no better than random...which can still carry a small disadvantage if your betting fundamentals are sound.


So, you see, a literal and figurative trifecta. But "gambling" with an advantage is not as easy as learning and application, and it often boils down to discipline, practice, and effective money management. As far as craps goes, I'm still practicing and applying...and you should be too. However, it is great to have an array of games to resort to in the casino (or track) environment...it increases the enjoyability of wagering and keeps things fresh.

Good luck to all!

Position Means A Lot

Recently, I was in one of my favorite craps joints at a table that was just opening. It didn't take long for more folks to slide on in, which pushed me to the Stick Right (SR) position on the table. Now typically, I like to get a little further away from the stickman when shooting. Interestingly enough, this position was pretty "unusual" for me that night. You would think that as close to the wall as possible would be best, but for me, not so much.

Why was that? Well, I practice from a distance that prepares me for shooting from at least two positions away from the stickman. In fact, earlier that night, I had a wonderful roll from the hook...which is about the furthest extent that I like to work from at the table. Moving the shooting range in later that evening ended up giving me an awkward feeling that left me shorting a couple throws, one of which prematurely ending a hand before it really got off the ground. Shorting from a close distance?!? It's all about feel, and that was certainly proof.

My point: practice and real-life should mimic each other. Find a comfortable range that you can operate at successfully with your physical skill, and try not to deviate from that zone until your skill and experience allow you to have almost unrestrained range. For me, however, I'm not at that point yet. But I'll keep at it. There's nothing like the game of craps and the opportunity to win.

Best of luck to you.

Patience & Diligence

As they say, "Rome was not built in a day." My post today leans heavily on philosophy and quite light on mathematics. In fact, it is probably more of an affirmation to myself as I continue to work towards attaining a consistent advantage in the game of craps. But what's stopping you from using the same motivation? So let's get after it!

Craps advantage play (AP) differs from all other casino AP in that this requires mastery of a physical skill. Blackjack calls for demanding mental prowess through memorization and repetition, which is challenging in itself. However, the game we are talking about here requires that a player pick up the dice and throw them down the table. Sure, you can be an advantage player by searching for effective dice influencers, but I believe that I am the key to my own success. What does it take to reach that level of success though? You could sum it up in the following points:

UNDERSTAND THE CONCEPT OF DICE CONTROL/INFLUENCING. Seems elementary, doesn't it? But you may be surprised just how many people don't understand what the bottom line to controlling the dice is: KEEPING THE DICE ON AXIS. The theory is really that simple. But we need to elaborate a bit...the prescribed axis should produce a constricted set of results (16 as opposed to 36), and the distribution of number outcomes will differ from the random standard as well.


LEARN AND CONSTANTLY IMPROVE THE PHYSICAL SKILL. The physical skill spoken of in the beginning is throwing the dice in such a way that they rotate around the z-axis out of your hand, through the air, and after the landing, kiss off the base of the wall, and rebound. Good grief! It's that easy, huh? Well, that is why tons of practice and a healthy dose of in-casino action is needed to make this happen. My throwing in these two very different environments has a lot of similarities, but when it's all boiled down, here's what I'm looking to do in these conditions:

In-House Practice - At home, I concentrate on producing a comfortable release that keeps the dice on axis through the air and upon impact. On top of that, I am also doing target practice. By target practice, I mean picking a 12" diameter circle and getting the dice in that area on axis consistently. I also vary where I shoot from so that several positions on the table will suit me rather than just having one. Of course, there is always the preferable location though. In summary: On axis release & landing, and target practice.

Casino Play - In the casino, it's all about using muscle memory take care of the solid release. The target practice at home relates to picking a spot on the table and judging the amount of bounce to the back wall. In order to get that light kiss off the base of the wall, I may have to make adjustments if I am unfamiliar to that particular table. But that's why I practice from different distances and positions...adjustments should be an unencumberance to my throwing. In summary: Smooth release and targeted landing (sound familiar?).


KNOW THE TRAITS OF THE PRE-SETS. As an advantage dice player, the core skill of keeping the dice on axis needs to be there before you can put it in perspective. But lets assume that you can reliably keep the dice on axis enough to produce an advantage (see some earlier posts for the math on that). It is important to understand what results can occur when the dice are kept on each of the 6 pre-set axes. Some are good to enhance the probability of the 7, while others can reduce it. Some are good for inside numbers, some better for outside numbers, and so on. I tend to think that 3 of the 6 sets are garbage, and avoid them. But you can investigate for yourself (or just peruse some earlier posts).


BET TO YOUR ADVANTAGE. Regardless of how proficient your skill is, some bets just don't stack up to the core bets. It is important to keep the discipline to hang with those core bets that give you a mathematical advantage, and thus, profit. As you've probably gathered in previous posts, I use 3 sets in my playbook: Hardways (1-1 on axes) for the come-out; Flying V (a.k.a. 3V / 1-2 on axes) for points of 5, 6, 8, & 9; and Mini V (a.k.a. 2V / 1-3 on axes) for points of 4 & 10. And this all relates back to my betting style, which capitalizes on the Pass Line with Odds and Place bets. I still avoid the center bets and field, even though the hard ways may be profitable depending on the situation.


EXECUTE AND HAVE FUN. If you can't exhibit your skill, bring home cash, and have fun at the same time, then it may not be for you. This skill does not develop overnight, and it requires constant work. But it should be another enjoyable part of life. Good luck!

Regression Can Work For You

Yes, you did read the title correctly. Coming from the person who basically said in an earlier post that regression betting does not equate to an advantage for a player. In the course of maturing as a craps advantage player (AP), perspectives can change. However, I still feel that regression betting increases volatility for the random dice game without any true increase in advantage. What I want to touch on regarding this topic has more to do with seizing opportunities with your skills in DC.

When you are shooting and betting with the advantage on your side, craps is no longer a completely negative expectation game. Simple enough. There is one thing that does not change regardless of whether the advantage lies with the player or the house: the 7 is still inevitable. What being a DC does do, however, is offer you an opportunity to turn your Pass Line and Place bets (among others) into money-makers. But if the 7 is going to come, whether it is 4 rolls into the hand or 30 rolls into the hand, a player with an advantage can look to regression to lock up a profit quickly and begin playing with house money.

For instance, Place betting the 6 & 8 when the situation and pre-set urges you can begin at a higher bet level than your base bets. In essence, the winnings from one hit at the higher bet level will cover both bets after the bet reduction. But that isn't really anything new...that's the basic regression play that has been around for years. The X Factor that the AP craps player is adding to the regression concept is an advantage. If your skill and the dice pre-set add up to a positive expectation on the 6 & 8 bets (or whatever bets you may have an advantage in), striking early and locking up the profit may work for you. The regression allows you to lock in a profit, and then go from there. You could leave the bets flat, step increase, parlay, etc. based on your philosophy and skill level.

My ramblings today are strictly theoretical in nature, as I have not taken the time to work out the math on this idea (just too busy building on my dice throwing skill these days). It is not part of my current playbook, but with further investigation and practice, it just may. Another thing that one should consider in an AP regression concept is how high to begin your initial bets. The lowest level should be enough to cover the eventual base bets, but a highly-skilled DC could start at a much higher level to capitalize on a substantial advantage. For me, however, baby steps.

Good luck with the bones.

Out of Commission

Just wanted to drop by and apologize for not posting regularly, but my work on the craps game has been very practice intensive lately. Since it is cold, rainy, or a combination of the two more often than not, practicing my craps throws seems to work out well this time of year. There are a few things I've come across over the last few weeks regarding practice that I would like to share:

• Separate practice out into two distinct segments... 1) fundamentals (grip, release, landing) and 2) gameplay (simulate the course of dice hands).
• Focus on "target practice" for those crowded table conditions where chips may be clogging the layout. In these conditions, it is important to be able to hone in on a clear area of the table at the right distance from the back wall and avoid any chips that will throw the dice off axis.
• During fundamentals practice, become comfortable shooting from different distances and sides in case the dice tables are often crowded when you are able to make it to the casino. There is certainly nothing wrong with having a preferred shooting position, and a skilled DC is better off at less crowded tables, but it always pays to be flexible.
• In situational gameplay practice, focus on making consistent on-axis throws. However, in this segment of practice you have an opportunity to take things to another level by linking dice pre-sets with the situation at hand. The comeout roll should dictate a different set than if you are in the course of a point cycle where your point is a 10. And you would likely be using a different set depending on what the point is and what your betting scheme urges.

Keep practicing and thanks for checking us out!

Ramp It Up

When you've got it, you gotta grab it head on. Some days when the dice are staying on axis more than usual and your stroke is just killing the numbers you expect to see, bells should go off in your head. These are the times to be more aggressive with your betting IF it doesn't rattle your rhythym. I've said in a past post that a pressure technique won't really gain you an advantage over the long run...but that was in the context of random shooting. We're talking about advantage play. Take advantage.

But this isn't a "throw everything out the window" type of aggressive play. It's a calculated, comfortable reinvestment strategy. There's really two ways of approaching a "ramp-up" situation: 1) during the course of a good hand, and 2) in between hands. This thought process is based on sessions where the physical DC skill is clicking, your mental frame is focused and comfortable ("in the zone" if you wish), and your chip count can handle increases in bet levels. This post deals with ramping up my bets during a hot DC hand, whereas the second situation deals more with bankroll/base bet reevaluation. The information presented below is also based on my playing style, which has been covered recently...simply stated, it is a Pass with Odds/Place bet combination. Hardways, Center Bets, Field bets, etc. are not part of my game.

There come times during the course of a hand where Place bets are popping and point(s) are getting hit without much junk in between. If this is due to a sharp, consistent display of on-axis DC shooting (by myself or anyone at the table), then a ramp-up is in order. I look to apply pressure on my bets uniformly: that is, I will press my Odds bet and my Place bet(s) because they should be based on the set being used. Perhaps this is a bit simpler to determine if I am setting and rolling the dice, but there is more opportunity to observe if another DC is shooting...so it does even out a bit.

Uniform pressure comes after my minimum bet spread has been paid for by the casino, but I do feel a need to use my "pocket half-invest half" approach in this case. I've mentioned this philosophy before in a more broader sense of the craps session, but in this circumstance where I should have an inherent advantage, it is an adjustment made in the course of a hot dice hand. In the following example, I'll simply use $10 base bets where the point is 6:

• Bets on Layout: $10 Pass Line / $20 (2X) Odds / $12 Place 8

• Minimum Bet Spread to Cover: $42

At the table, I use one rack for my total chips and the other to put the collected chips from the current dice hand in. If I have been able to rake in at least $42 in the course of the hand, I will know by the amount of money in the "current hand" rail. At this point, I begin to think of pressing the Odds and Place bets in half-steps...yes, half-steps. Not as aggressive as some, but that is my comfort level especially at this stage in my DC work.

This is where my reinvestment strategy begins to unfold. Sticking with the example above and assuming that my current bets have been paid for, my pressure play will consist of $5 more on my Odds and $6 more on my Place bet (in my eyes, this is a one-unit press), totaling $11. Seems rather minor, and it is. But that's the beauty of it. To make this one-unit press, I am looking for at least a $22 profit on the hand...that's half to reinvest and half to stay in the rack. And this is a constant climb for me; one that gets "easier" as the ball gets rolling. Think about it this way: once the first press takes place, that Place 8 bet is up to $18 and will return $21 on a hit...which is pretty much close enough to make the next $11 press play.

It's ONE WAY to harness the power of momentum. This, just like my betting style, is the way that I do things. The point of all this is: develop a skill, earn an advantage, and find a way to profit from it.

My Preferred Betting Scheme

As we've touched on before here, craps is such a unique game in that every player at the table at any given time could hold a different betting/playing philosophy for the same game. Being an Advantage Player (AP) in the game of craps for all intents and purposes directly relates to the skill of controlling the dice (DC). Other games in the casino can be exploited by advantage play, but blackjack and video poker can be the most advantageous. Here's where I'll plug the good people over at the BlackjackInfo forums... http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/forumdisplay.php?f=1

In this post, I want to talk a little about my personal base betting scheme that I use when I am shooting the dice with my DC skill. As this skill is, as always, a work in progress both at home and in the casino, I feel that it is important to not bet beyond my skill. At this point in time, my OAP is about 1:4 to 1:4.5. This level will not let me retire early, but it will give me a fighting chance to make the casino my place of business. On days that I am exhibiting better dexterity than others, my bottom-line bets and amount of odds that I take may increase...but I always begin mentally with base-line play. When others who are not prospective DCs are shooting, I am typically a Place 6 & 8 bettor or perhaps even a spectator.

That being said, my base-line betting format depends entirely on what my current point is. The Hardways Set is my go-to come-out set since it has a 25% chance of rolling a 7 while the 2 and 12 are essentially eliminated. When the point is established, I then switch up my pre-set to the Flying V (or 3V) if it is 5, 6, 8, or 9; or to the Mini V (2V) if it is a 4 or 10. Each paragraph below looks at these individual situations, my betting scheme, and what the long-run odds are with my DC skill:

POINT OF 6 OR 8: Scoring these numbers as the point is a beautiful thing. With my current OAP hovering around 1:4, 1X Odds on this number puts me at about a 3.5% advantage. Obviously, pumping up the odds here steps me to about 5%, 6%, 6.5%, 7%, etc. When warming up, I'm comfortable at 2X Odds...but that mark can increase if the throw is on at that time. I feel that Place bets are part of my repertoire as well. And with either the 6 or 8 as the point, I keep it focused on those numbers. I'll place the opposite number with a advantage of just under 7% and look for repeaters of that number and a quick-hitter on the comeback.

POINT OF 5 OR 9: Interestingly enough, I feel that having these numbers as my point puts me in No Man's Land...not a warm and fuzzy place to be. With a 1:4 OAP, I would need to throw down 3X Odds to gain a slight advantage with the Pass/Odds bet. At this point in time (I hate to say it), I actually pass on the odds bet here and essentially "write off" my Pass Line bet for greener pastures. Sure, I want to hit either the 5 or 9 and try again for a new point number, but Placing the 6 & 8 here can bring about a 7% advantage...that seems a bit more worthy of my cash here. With the 5 or 9, I'm just looking to hit some Place bets and move on.

POINT OF 4 OR 10: It's a bit tough to gain an advantage with these point numbers as well without plopping down 2X or 3X Odds. However, with those Odds amounts and at my skill level, a 3.5% advantage with 3X Odds is tempting if I'm warmed up. Placing the opposite number can give me a nice advantage of just under 6%, so a buy of the number (as long as it is at least $20) can offer a slightlly greater edge for me. If I have to make a choice here for bankroll purposes, I lean towards Placing or Buying the opposite number than pumping up the Odds.

Well, there it is. A look into my mind when I'm at the craps table. Obviously I'm rooting for a 6 or 8 as my point because those are most exploitable numbers for a DC. Why? For starters, they carry the smallest house advantage from a random perspective. And from a DC point of view, the Flying V set, when executed properly, actually presents an opportunity where there are more ways to throw a 6 or 8 (3 ways EACH) than the 7 (2 ways)...an unheard of advantage in this game. Heck, the Flying V and the Mini V can offer the same amount of ways to roll the 5 & 9 or 4 & 10 (2 ways each), respectively, than the 7 (2 ways).

Play with an advantage...and good luck!

Carpe Advantage

Four years of high school Latin have dissolved into this post's title, but hey, that was a long time ago! P.S. This is NOT my picture...but the pagoda ones were :)

This post is a condensed, to-the-point look at Advantage Play (AP) at the craps table. Most of this is probably review or summary for many, but that's OK. Nothing wrong with positive affirmation of advantageous techniques, right? Beyond practice, practice, practice and building critical live experience in the casino, these points all feed into craps AP:

LOOK FOR EMPTY TABLES. The less people playing at the dice table = more opportunities to shoot the dice. If you are capable of playing with an advantage, then you want to be the one with the dice. Sometimes you have to take what you can get when your window to get to the casino is limited, but try to put your work in during the week, in off-hours, or on non-peak weekends.

MINIMIZE BETS ON OTHER PLAYERS. If playing at tables with several (or many) other players, look to minimize your bets on them. Pass Line with single odds is a sub-1% house edge bet, and Place 6 & 8 is a combined 1% house edge play. The ultimate would be to sit out while all other players shoot the dice, but that is iffy...and some houses will see you consistently not making bets and pass the dice by you. Oh yeah, keep your eyes out for other prospective DCs that can be profitable for you (see the "Keep Your Third Eye Open" post).

KNOW THE CASINO'S TABLE CONDITIONS. The length and "bounciness" of a casino's tables can throw a DC off (pun intended) if you are not prepared. Some houses have shorter tables that can be advantageous since the length of your throw doesn't need to be that long. And some have gigantic tables that seem like a country mile from your position to the wall...I'm thinking of the Lakeside Inn in Tahoe to be exact. Of course, a 12' table doesn't necessarily mean better results than a 14' table. Generally, the shorter option is better. But if your typical casino(s) have 14' tables and that's what you practice for, the shorter variety may alter your results. Some tables are bouncier than others...typically, the less bounce the better. And another development, which is a bit more recent, is the placement of some ribbing under the felt up against the wall. This is installed with the similar mindset as the diamond rubber on the wall itself...it's used as a "randomizer".

KNOW HOW TO BET YOUR SETS & PROFIT FROM MODEST HANDS. As stated in the "What's In A Winning DC Hand?" post, a winning dice hand doesn't always mean a 20-roll hand. A quick-point hand and/or one that returns several hits on your Place bets can make a 7-roll hand lucrative...especially if you are betting to your sets. Know the Big 3 sets (Hardways, Flying V, Mini V), when and why you would use them, and bet to their advantages. If your throws are on-axis, then the math will basically take over from there.

MAKE THE CASINO YOUR PLACE OF BUSINESS. In essence, the casino offers games of chance to patrons (obviously, the odds are tilted in the house's favor) by which money is passed from losers to winners...and the rest is casino profit. That simplistic flow is why AP is practiced, practiced more, and put into play in the casino...the bottom line is MAKING MONEY! Don't take the attitude of the casino being the bad guy, but as broker of others' money to you. We probably wouldn't be talking about this if there were no businesses offering what casinos do. Toke the dealers...earn a positive reputation in the session and over the long haul to possibly receive favorable service and to avoid excessive pressure (heat) from the suits. Don't over-tip, but keep it constant when you are shooting. Give the house a reason to want to see you hit your point...money talks! If you feel that the dealers are not doing a good job, are rude, or for whatever reason to not deserve tips, then perhaps a change of venue is warranted. The casino is the AP's place to do business.

Playing Within Yourself

So there's an Asian pagoda in Reading, PA? Who knew? As we were outside enjoying some beautiful weather today, we went exploring and found this awesome pagoda in Reading. Earlier, though, I was searching for a topic to post about since it had been a while. I thought about the last couple sessions at the craps table and recalled a couple lessons solidified by one guy at the table next to me. Finding the pagoda lent a little "zen" ambiance to the subject, it all came together.


We were at Resorts in Atlantic City the other day (nice craps tables I should add), and I was waiting for my shot at the dice. An older gentleman three spots down has the dice, and comes out with a Craps number, 7, and another Craps number. So the guy next to me, who has been betting the inside numbers since I got there, says "You should bet the Horn." I chuckle and pretty much tell him that it's not my bag, but I don't want to get into odds and math in front of the crew. Shooter rolls another Craps number, and my neighbor hits me again with a prompt to play the Horn again. A couple more Craps numbers come out before the point gets established, but I stayed away...and so did the guy next to me.

When the dice get around to me, I'm geared up to shoot. Nine is my point. My neighbor uncharacteristically is on the Don't Pass and loads up with odds against my point. I roll a couple of inside numbers, then nail the point. Guy leaves the table before I get to say goodbye.

The point of this little story, which took about 7 minutes of real-life time, is that a consistent player must play within himself (or herself). The lessons reaffirmed, since they are ones that should be elementary:

• In the first part, I stayed away from betting the Horn because I know that it carries such a high house edge, and making that bet will grind you down. Stick to the core bets with low advantages...ones that can give you and advantage with skill in influencing the dice. Although I missed out on winning a couple Horn bets in this situation, you have to weigh the disadvantage of making that bet any other time. It's a long-run loser.
• Secondly, flip-flopping can leave you empty-handed. My neighbor was betting inside numbers for quite a while, but obviously switched up at the wrong time. There is something to be said about going with the flow of the table, but craps table momentum isn't quite the same as momentum in an NFL game. Plus, he wasn't looking for a potential DC to be standing next to him either. Long story short: I liked the guy, but I wish that he would have stuck with the inside numbers...and I'm sure he did too.

Good luck to you all in 2008. Keep practicing.

Can You Pull The Trigger?

Doesn't life seem to be full of funny circumstances, like when something you haven't heard about in years just pops up here and there all of a sudden? Well, a craps strategy called the Captain's 5-Count is one of those things that has decided to work its way back onto my radar...at least my craps life. So the topic of this post is about "trigger points" and how some betting systems use them to indicate when to make a particular play.

I think we need to first qualify this discussion again by saying that without being able to influence the dice, you cannot create an advantage for the player by simply getting in early, late, or not at all. So, should you be looking for a trigger point to jump in, get out, or even flat-out avoid a shooter? As mentioned above, the Captain's 5-Count tells a player to wait until after the shooter makes the fifth roll of the hand, then bet. There are other variations of this philosophy, including where one would make bets up front, but then take down any non-contract bets at the trigger point (the direct opposite). Another spin-off would be a shooter "qualification process", by which a player waits to see if the shooter is worth while. A shooter can be considered qualified if the point is hit before the trigger point, or even if the shooter makes the point at all.

BETTING AFTER THE TRIGGER POINT

Lets first look at a system like the 5-Count, which has its roots in the mathematical probability of the 7. If this ever-so-important number's chance of appearing is 1 in 6, then a correlation could be drawn that where any dice hand that extends beyond that sixth roll (come out roll 1 + 5 subsequent rolls) is "above average" and should be bet on. By doing this, a Place bettor can miss out on those killer quick 7-outs. This can be a bankroll-saver, but if genuine opportunities are missed, is it truly beneficial for you as a winner? Here are my key issues with this philosophy:

• A shooter is just as likely to roll a 7 at any point in the hand, whether it is the sixth roll, the third, or the tenth. Point being, any bet that has the 7 working against it is always at risk.
• Picking a trigger point to wait for action misses out on what really matters in a dice hand: content. Even if the shooter rolls 7 on that sixth roll, what if your Place bets would have been hit and a profit missed? The probabilities for your numbers being rolled, as well as the 7 are the same before or after a trigger point...and the 7 is always inevitable. If one is looking at standard probabilities, would you not think that the 7 is more "due" after that sixth roll?
• This method pretty much exempts you from playing the Pass Line, at least on the shooter's first point.

BAILING AT THE TRIGGER POINT

Take the previous philosophy and flip it. Say you were going to make Place bets after the point was established, and then pull them down once that trigger point came up...take that fifth roll again for an example. The thought process here really is the opposite of the first, but should hold just as true as it because they both play off of the 1 in 6 probability of the 7 being rolled. Here are my issues with this one though:

• Because a player is limiting themself to playing just the beginning of a hand, good or even huge rolls may be missed out on. And we all know that those instances of "good fortune" are real moneymakers if your money is on the felt.
• Is there a way to account for come-out 7s? If you think about it, a trigger point based on the standard probability of the 7 being rolled should be adjusted when those come-out 7s appear. They are, after all, "out of place". The opposite should be factored in as well, where horn numbers are rolled during the come-out...they should be counted against that approach to the trigger point.
• Again, this point of view is blind to content. Perhaps the player is at a profit during those few rolls before the trigger point...is it a judgement call, or is a pull-out warranted?

QUALIFYING THE SHOOTER

This is a technique that a player would use to determine whether a shooter is worth betting on or against, and possibly even avoiding. Typically, this involves looking for something to happen (like making a point) before or after the trigger point, or just at all. For the most part, this philosophy is pretty much related to the other two concepts so I won't go into much discussion on it. Actually, it makes a great segway for my concluding thoughts...

Using a methodical trigger point to guide your making or pulling of bets isn't really the worst thing that you could do. I honestly feel that your betting scheme should be applied with respect to the lengthy topics I've touched on throughout this blog, regardless of a trigger point. Whether the trigger is obviously arbitrary (say, roll #8) or based on math (roll #6), a play-all mentality should capture a piece of the long-range probabilities of the dice. And those probabilities can equate to a low house advantage if the core bets are made...but skilled influence on the dice can even flip the odds to your favor (as you should well know around here). The point is: be consistent, but do it for a reason. Observe the flow of the game, look into the content of the dice hand, secure a profit wherever possible, and (naturally) practice your skill.

What's In A Winning DC Hand?

I'm going to approach this post from a conceptual standpoint, in which we look at what really makes a successful controlled dice hand in the casino. Of course, a realistic point of view says that any dice hand that produces a profit for you is successful. But let's dig deeper with a few questions. Some of the points I'll bring up may be re-runs from earlier, but I feel that they are critical to understanding what it truly means to control the dice effectively.

QUESTION #1: What does the Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) tell you? This metric can give an impression of whether your rolling is affecting the standard probability of the 7 (1 in 6). A higher SRR can infer that you are reducing the frequency of the 7 being rolled. SRR does NOT say if you are keeping the dice on axis, and it does NOT represent whether "desirable" numbers are being rolled before the 7-out. In this context, desirable = profitable.

QUESTION #2: What does the On-Axis Proportion (OAP) tell you? OK, so maybe I made this term up, but I like what it represents. OAP is something that is a necessary metric in all of the math I've derived for potential effects of DC on bets. It can be an assessment tool that shows just how skillful of a DC you are with a simple ratio of on-axis rolls to total rolls (1 in 3 is solid). Depending on what your OAP is, you should have a general idea of what bets can generate an advantage depending on the pre-set. This measure is NOT a ratio of 7s to rolls (SRR). Remember, not all 7s rolled are bad ones...they can be profitable on come-out rolls, so why should they be avoided in such circumstances?

QUESTION #3: What is the primary objective for DC? This answer is very simple...make as much money as possible!!! Keeping the dice on a pre-set axis can reduce their potential outcomes to 16, rather than 36. The probabilities of the numbers that can be rolled are changed as well. The more frequently (higher OAP) the dice are kept on axis, the closer you can bring random probabilities to those of the pre-set. And those modified probabilities are what you should be betting for (see all those other posts). This ushers in a high premium on practicing at home. There are some easy alternatives to having to buy a craps table for your house that I want to get into here soon. But for now, find a way and focus on what really matters...keeping the dice on axis.

Taking a step away from these three questions, it's important that we put the effects of DC in perspective. It is very unreasonable to expect 20- and 30-roll hands more often than not, especially when the lowest probability of a 7 being rolled with DC is 12.5% (1 in 8). The focus needs to be on the substance of the dice hand. I'm sure we've all seen some 6-roll hands that were better than some 15-roll hands. How can a hand 40% shorter than another be better? Maybe there were a lot of horn numbers in the mix. Perhaps a vast majority of the rolls were outside numbers, and you bet inside. Or maybe there was an outside point number, and all that came out were inside numbers and the point didn't pass. DC is about boiling down the outcomes of the dice and betting at those numbers, which should correlate to a modest or even substantial advantage. But it's hard to do that without keeping the dice on axis regularly and consistently.

Here are my 3 keys to DC success...short and sweet:
1. Hone your skill with practice (increase that OAP).
2. Bet according to your skill and the situation.
3. Learn to spot other DCs at the table.


MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Keep Your Third Eye Open

I have to start out this post by apologizing for not keeping a steady stream of posts coming lately. Between the holidays, traveling, and a little something called my day job, things have been really busy. Now that we're through all that...

There's something about casino games, and craps in particular, that requires a lot of observation and somewhat of an instinct to make critical decisions in the course of the game. Now you may be thinking "wait a minute, much of the info on this site preaches about having a plan and sticking to the most favorable bets!" That is absolutely true, and should not fundamentally change. But some slight adjustments on the fly can help you take advantage of some key and/or rare opportunities.

In an ideal world, you'd know when the table was about to heat up...and exactly what bets you need out there to take advantage. Of course, you'd also know when the 7-out was coming. But for us mere mortals, a considerable amount of time around the game can yield a bit of instinct into the game. This shouldn't be mixed up with superstition, but a player needs to be able to capitalize on lucky streaks.

For example, if the 6 & 8 have rolled a total of five times in a short period of time and you've Placed them for $12 each, total payoffs amount to $70. Well, your initial $24 investment has been more than paid for (profit of $46) and it may be time to think about "reinvesting some dividends" with some pressure, so to speak. The hand could end on the next roll or it could go on for a dozen more chucks of the dice...that is an unknown. What we do know is that the 6 & 8 combo is a solid bet and very favorable short-term variance is being experience. Observe this trend and take action, but don't go overboard or overestimate how hot the table is. It's a judgement call, but discipline, a level head, and a solid understanding of the game can help you make the right move more often than not.

Another way to be observant deals with spotting fellow DCs at your table. It doesn't always have to be you as the shooter to make a profit at the table, so why not be on the lookout for other folks with the same mission as you? Just like the discussion earlier on this site about the basic principles of DC, you should be looking for these things from prospective DCs:

1. Pre-set (remember that there are several ways to arrange any particular set)
2. Consistent release
3. Targeted & controlled landing
4. Dominant numbers

If you do spot a fellow DC, take note of what he/she is betting. There's probably a good reason why they are using a particular scheme, and meshing that into your bet combinations should be considered an option.

There's often a lot going on at a typical dice table, and being observant often means cutting through a lot of the smokescreen (figuratively and literally) to find out what you want to know. Acclimate yourself to the casino, the game, and the dealers...and always be ready!

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Place Bet Combos and DC

The tables below give us a perspective into bet combinations and the potential effect from setting the dice to the Flying V and Mini V sets, which we have established as the best for rolling point and Place bet numbers. As we've discovered before, combining Place bets can often offer a lower house edge than with singular bets. The array of bet combinations provided may seem awkward, but one has to consider the fact that your Place bets will likely be accompanied by a Pass Line bet (a Line bet of some sort is required for you to shoot).

This look at things throws DC into the mix. Depending on your skill level (quantified by the 1 in X on-axis rate), many of these combinations can be advantageous...of course, some are moreso than others. In the tables, the highlighted cells refer to player-favorable situations. Green-highlighted cells represent an advantage higher in that set than the other, whereas blue-highlighted cells represent an advantage lower than the other set.


A simple overview of this information shows us that the Flying V can offer a higher advantage for the player when it comes to any combination of Place bets that involve the 6 and/or 8. The Mini V is in the same situation, but with combos that incorporate the 4 and/or 10. If the combination is strictly the 5 & 9, both of these sets are evenly matched for the job.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!

Odds and DC

Back when we looked at the different sets and their strengths, it was determined that the Hardways set was prime for point numbers of 6 &8, Flying V or Mini V for point numbers of 5 & 9, and Mini V for point numbers of 4 & 10. At that time, the Pass Line bet, after it traveled to the point number, was evaluated with only single odds. Below are tables for the three number pairs, with yellow-highlghted cells where a player can gain advantage depending on the DC skill (quantified by by the "1 in X" figure).

Point of 6/8: (chart below should read "Flying V Set"...my apologies)

Point of 5/9:

Point of 4/10:

In review of the tables, you can see that point numbers of 6 & 8 bring the most potential profit for the player, which is in part due to the lower house edge on the bet without any influence. Point numbers of 5 & 9 and 4 & 10 are lower, but hold some interesting qualities. These points can offer an advantage if the player's skill is solid enough AND when enough odds are taken. Here is where understanding the sets' strengths and properly adjusting your odds bets to gain or increase your edge is important. This is the knowledge that must accompany the physical skill of the Advantage Player.

Dice Set Quick Reference

This post is meant to be a quick reference for the six dice sets we've explored on this blog. If you take a look at the first table below, there are the sets with the axis numbers listed underneath. This, perhaps, is the best way to remember multiple ways to arrange a pre-set at the casino. Multiple arrangements can help you to cover your skill with a quick setup and a non-repetitive display of the dice. You'll also see the number of possible combinations for each of the outcomes (remember 36 total for a random throw; 16 for a controlled on-axis throw), including hardways.

This table translates the sets' outcome probabilities into percentages. Trying to use a little color, the blue cells mark those numbers that have a higher chance of being rolled in an on-axis throw for the respective set. Orange cells note the same thing, but are colored differently because it refers to the 7.

The two posts regarding the Hardways, Flying V, and Mini V sets do a more thorough job to lay out what the three key sets are good for. An easy way to remember the utility of these sets is:

• COME OUT: Hardways Set
• POINT/PLACE 6 & 8: Flying V
• POINT/PLACE 5 & 9: Flying V or Mini V
• POINT/PLACE 4 & 10: Mini V
  

Post Updates

Several posts have been updated as of today:

http://hothandcraps.blogspot.com/2007/08/hard-way-set.html

http://hothandcraps.blogspot.com/2007/08/flying-v-set.html

http://hothandcraps.blogspot.com/2007/08/three-more-good-sets.html

Information and calculations regarding several of the dice sets have been updated with better information. Check it out!

Place vs. Come

This topic has been debated for quite some time, and that won't really change as long as the craps game keeps the same rules. I'm surprised that we haven't gotten into this topic yet, but there was a little discussion on it over at the Blackjackinfo.com message boards. By the way, that is a great website for anyone interested in or practicing card counting and other advantage blackjack techniques. Anyways, this post will attempt to get to the bottom of this issue...but I'll admit ahead of time that they are both good bets. You just need to know why each bet is better than the other. For this discussion we'll use $10 Come bets and $12 Place bets.

Let's start by looking at the Place 6 & 8 bet. It's really simple enough to say that there are ten ways to roll a winner ($14 payoff on $12 wager), and six to lose both bets. In each roll of the dice that these wagers are out, you've got a 27.8% chance of winning $14, a 16.7% chance of losing $24, and a 55.5% chance that nothing happens for you. That equates to a 1.04% house edge for each roll of the dice...not bad at all.

The Come bets are a little bit more complicated because they act differently before and after they travel to a number. Remember that the Come bet is pretty much exactly like the Pass line, except that the timing of the bet is different (made after the come-out roll). Before the bet travels, it has a sizeable 33.3% advantage for the player because of the eight ways to win compared to only four ways to lose. After that, though, the Come bet is at the mercy of the point it travels to (see the discussion on the Pass Line bet).

Looking at the pros and cons of these two types of bets, it's safe to make the following observations:

• The Come bet gets you in on the biggest player advantage available on the craps table: a 33.3% edge on the roll before the bet travels to a number.
• Odds bets can be added to the Come bet once it travels.
• The Place 6 & 8 combo offers a continuous low 1.04% house advantage at all times.
• Both the Odds bet (with the Come) and the Place bets allow you to increase, decrease, or remove at any time.
• Notwithstanding a natural win of the Come bet, it takes two hits on the same number (once for it to travel, and a second to win) to win; whereas the Place bet would be collected twice in that same period.
• If you already have a Pass Line or a Come bet(s) established when your Come bet wins on a natural 7, it is more than likely a push or overall loss. In that case, the Come bet is acting more like a hedge bet than one that is taking full advantage of the powerful 7.

So, there it is. A rundown of the Place vs. Come bet debate...still not resolved, and still up in the air. I personally prefer the Place bets because of two factors: the continuous low house edge and the fact that a 7-winner on a Come bet probably means an overall loss for me, considering that I typically already have a Pass Line bet in play. But this is one situation that no matter which way you go, they are both good decisions as far as craps bets go.

To factor DC into the mix here, you really want to think hard about what numbers you are targeting in a particular situation. If you are getting good results on targeting, I think that getting in heavy by Placing those numbers would ensure a quick return on that investment. To take it to another level, one could even Place the targeted numbers and jump on board with Come bets as well. Without doing any math, a dialed-in DC could get the Come bets to travel to those numbers with the Place bets, parlay the winnings and the original bet into a big odds bet, and go for a quick repeater. That's somewhat of an all-or-nothing proposition, but if you've got the skills...it's time to pay the bills!

Like A Pro

Sometimes, there can be a fine line separating a hobby from a profession...and sometimes there is a huge difference. Craps and some other casino games can be used by savvy gamblers as a source of "fun money", supplemental income, or even a full income. Because I am NOT a full-time craps player, I can only attest to using casino games as a source of fun, supplemental income...I have a full time job, insurance, retirement, etc. But there are some methods that anyone can employ to head down the road of an advantage player (AP) in the game of craps.

1. First, let's start with effective money management techniques. For many responsible gamblers, this may sound elementary and repetitive. Before you even walk up to the craps table you should already know what bet levels you are going to play at, the most money you are willing to lose at that time (session bankroll), and any other parameters like the maximum amount of time you will spend there. You don't want to be digging into your pockets for more cash when the first session BR has been exhausted, and you sure as hell don't need to be hitting up the ATM for more dough. Set your limits and stick to a game plan.
2. Have a properly-sized bankroll. The smart player comes to the table with enough money to ride the waves of variance and ensure that not too much will be lost in one session. Your session BR should be about 10-15X your average bet. A DC should weight the "big bets" on him/herself more heavily that when a smaller betting scheme is used for other shooters. The 10-15X formula gives some leeway for the player with respect to philosophy. My philosophy tends to lean towards the low end of that range...about 10-12X. Why so low? Because I look at this as my session BR, which is part of a trip BR for a whole day or even several days. Taking that concept ever further, I feel that this is enough money to come to the table and weather a couple of storms to give me an opportunity to win money. If I have lost a net of 10 average bet combinations, then I have either run into some seriously bad luck OR have been at the table for too long and was ground down.
3. Keep good records of your "transactions". Whether in a notebook, computer, or a PDA, make sure that your wins and losses are tracked with the date and location of your play. Go as far as to know the results of each session and duration thereof. Depending on the level and frequency of your play, this could be important info for tax and perhaps business purposes. You may even want to open up a separate savings, checking, or money market account into which you can make contributions to and make withdrawals from. The more serious you are, the more detailed you should be. Expenses like fuel, lodging, and food could also be tracked.
4. Use profit-securing techniques at the table. The way I look at locking up profit during a session is that it is a must. There are many different techniques, but the one I use involves a chip assessment after each shooter that nets a profit. If I have a session BR of $500, and I am up to $560 after a shooter's good hand...I split that $60 profit in half. Half goes into a separate area (sometimes making it to my pocket) that will not get spent in this session, and the other half supplements the existing bankroll on the rail. With my plan of attack, there's two interesting things to note:

• 1) Winnings generated when my BR is low will go completely back to the BR, keeping me in the game.
• 2) Successive or clustered winning hands typically deliver more of the winnings into my "keep the profits" pile. Take the above example of the $60 net win, split that in half so my BR is now $530. Rack up another $20 net win from the next shooter, and there's $550 in the BR...split that so another $25 gets kept and we're now not leaving the table with less than $55, and we are still up with the session BR.

Anyhow, these are just a few more tips on raising the level of your game. This is purely from a management standpoint, and is an essential supplement to a lot of the other things we've discussed on this site: understanding the good bets, learning the skills of DC, & developing an efficient betting scheme. These are the foundations of being a true craps advantage player.

Advanced Dice Set Knowledge

Well, maybe this knowledge isn't advanced per se, but it is probably the most foolproof way to identify and/or use dice sets as part of the DC concept. It is understanding which numbers make up the axis of the two dice, rather than (or in conjunction with) the numbers on the top or side. We've broken down each of the sets, focused on an identifying "look" to each, and even went as far as to say that there are alternative "looks" to them.

But this frame of mind focuses on the constants of the individual dice sets: the axes. Once you can memorize the axis numbers with the sets and their strengths, setting the dice in the casino will likely be quicker and perhaps bring less suspicion if you're not looking to get the same numbers on top each roll. Regardless, it's a good tool to have. Below is a list of the six sets, along with two sets of numbers...those are the numbers that should make up the axis:

• Hardway Set: 1-6 / 1-6
• Flying V (3V): 1-6 / 2-5
• Mini V (2V): 3-4 / 1-6
• 2-3V (Crossed Sixes): 3-4 / 2-5
• All Sevens 2-5 / 2-5
• Straight Sixes 3-4 / 3-4
  

Here's a few points based on the cubes' traits that will probably make memorization and understanding easier:

• Numbers on opposite sides of the dice add up to 7 (Dice 101).
  
• The axis numbers are listed small to large above, but it does not matter which side either one is on...as long as they are on axis.
• There's no reason to distinguish left die from right die for this purpose...as long as they are on axis.
  

This should make setup quicker and easier because of the many ways to get the dice the way you want 'em. It could be a turn or two of the dice after the stickman passes them back, or a shake or two before they give you the set you want. Easy as pie--just get the throwing part down now.

(thanks rdorange for the inspiration on this one)

Cover Tactics

The casino environment can be difficult to overcome for some folks, and the "away game" factor somewhat sums that up. There's a lot of distractions there with noises, shiny objects, smoke, and suits with laser-beam glares. Most of us have definitely made our way around several casinos in our days and that all becomes part of the ambiance, if you will. I usually like to take a walk around the casino floor for 5-10 minutes and maybe grab a drink from the bar before I ever exchange money for chips and play. That acclimation period helps me put the distracting sights, sounds, and scents in the background...kind of like getting your sea legs on a boat.

A DC with solid skill can rake home some serious cash in a typical session, but the consistent throws, big bets, and same dice setups can attract the attention of that boxman sitting there in the suit. If you've been made by the suits, they and the dealers can really try to put a crimp in your plans to use the craps table as an ATM. So what's a player with the edge to do?

First, let's visit some of the tactics exhibited by dealers who like to harass folks on a roll:

• Excessive holding up of the game (trying to break any rhythm).
• Periodic "inspections" of the dice (as if you had brought your own to the game).
• Short-sticking the dice...stickman doesn't push them back to you all the way.
• Shoving the dice back at you like you spit on the stickman.
• Periodically returning the dice with 7 showing (for those superstitious players).
  
• Forcing you to hit the back wall, even if you are very close.
• Critiquing how high you throw the dice.
• Verbal abuse.
• Evil eyes.

OK, I think the point has been made. This is a good time to say that not all dealers are Grade A jerks, and there's certain simple things that a player can do to throw down the olive branch like calling them by name, saying "please" or "thank you" when making bets, and getting the crew in the game by betting for them. We've talked about toking the dealers with something as simple as a $1 Pass Line bet or a two-way Hardway bet. It doesn't have to be on every roll, but it should be done throughout the session and definitely on your throw.

But just because the dealers are messing with you in one or a couple of the ways mentioned above doesn't mean they're on to you as a DC. Those above techniques may squash some of those suspicions, but there are a couple ways to help cover your skill for longevity, especially at the same casino(s). Don't wear out your welcome, but a friendly player who puts the dealers in the game occasionally is usually a happy sight. Before we talk about the last couple techniques, let's do a little pop quiz on dice sets...

What dice sets do you see with these pairs?

How 'bout these?

And these?

Perhaps the quiz was loaded, because each of the pairs of dice in the pictures were the same set, just shown differently. First was Mini V (or 2V), second was 23 V (or Crossed Sixes), and last was Flying V (or 3V). Experimenting with the dice at home can make you comfortable with at least two different ways to arrange the same set. Couple that with quick setup when the dice are returned to you, and the successful DC can provide a little camouflage for himself. A friendly demeanor, shooting for the crew, and a quick & "inconsistent" setup can make the best DC look like an average Joe (who wins more often that not, of course).


FYI: I am considering assembling these posts into an organized handbook or something like that for download. Anyone who would have any interest in this can leave a comment or email me at chefjj@gmail.com. Just like the blog, it would be free. The money is to be made on the tables.

Measuring Your Control

The game of craps revolves around numbers, probability, and money. For aspiring, improving, and established dice controllers, the issue of measuring this skill brings about quite a bit of discussion. My take on the topic is strictly my two cents, but I do feel it to be reliable by emphasizing the most important aspect of DC: keeping the dice on axis.

When practicing, it is an absolute must to keep track of the results of your throws from the standpont of on- or off-axis. As touched on several posts back, I practice by keeping the 1's as the axis as the pre-set. That way, I can watch the dice roll and look to see if those 1's have been kept on the axis. Whatever your method is, always keep track of that simple thing.

Here's why: the underlying concept of DC is keeping the dice on axis to limit the total possibilities of the dice's outcome (16 rather than 36), and change the probabilities of those outcomes. When the dice go off axis at any time, you're back to a random roll; back to 36 possibilities and back to the standard probable outcomes.

So, is there anything else you should really be concentrating on? Yes and no. But first, I've gotta say that developing a consistent controlled throw requires muscle memory and mental awareness that needs practice. Like going to the driving range, batting cages, or shooting tons of free throws. It needs to be second nature before it can ever be a solid skill in the "hostile" casino environment. Every session is an away game if you want to look at it that way.

Anyhow, let's just assume that you've got the solid throw down on a decent basis. How does one measure this raw skill? I say that it is your typical (or average) proportion of on-axis throws to total throws, e.g. "1 in 5". You should be aspiring to get as close to rolling on-axis each time you throw them down the table. Controlling their probabilities and betting to take advantage of them is what DC is all about...plain and simple.

So you may be asking about other measuring sticks of control, such as SRR (seven-to-roll ratio) or the percentage distribution of your rolls. I can't really vouch for them too much because I don't rely on them. I see it this way: if you are keeping the dice on axis at a good rate with your throws and are setting the dice to match your betting scheme (or vice versa perhaps), probability should take care of the rest. Skill (practice) + probability (knowledge) = payola. Think of that as your formula for success.

Makin' The Dice Dance

Perhaps one of the downfalls of this blog is not being able to really organize the posts according to topics, so you'll find a mixed bag as it goes along. For those that can stick with it, this go around will attempt to address how the dice from a controlled throw should ideally act. The beauty about the game of craps is that it is such a hands-on game where a person with skill could have a direct impact on the course of action. That's what makes DC worthy of study, understanding, and practice. Think about it this way...if you give it a try and it doesn't work, what's the worst thing that could happen? The dice come out random just like any other throw.

But that's not what we're after...we're looking to develop a relatively consistent throwing skill coupled with appropriate betting and knowledge of the sets' strengths. Understanding the probabilities of the sets' outcomes is a memorization thing that's a prerequisite, and betting is for the most part too. It's the physical skill that makes DC a rare thing in the casino world. In the past, we've looked at where to shoot from and how the dice need to keep on axis at least 1 in 3 throws to maintain a solid edge on the house. Without the benefit of graphics, let's look at this "keeping on axis" situation...

I will preface this discussion with the fact that I am a true advocate of finding your own style and doing what works best for you. There are several ways to start the dice throw with regard to the grip. Most keep the dice side-by-side and some actually stack them on top of each other on the table. I've never had any luck stacking, so the dice stay next to each other for me.

GRIP: There are a couple websites out there that I've seen that have good pictures of dice grips, and you can definitely do a search it you'd like to see them. But I have to say that you just need to find a way that is comfortable and provide a steady hold on the dice...keeping them on axis in your hand and starting them out as such when you release. Your hand should not twist the dice, and the arm perpendicular behind it all.

RELEASE: Think of your arm as an aiming mechanism--if the dice come out in line with your forearm after the release, that is a minor battle you've won. The greater degree of angle away from the line that they travel, the more chance they will fly off axis. So that's also an "aim" thing. A very important part of the release to consider is spin. YOU have to decide whether your technique involves putting some or no spin on the dice out of the gates...but the key is that if there is to be any spin, it is around the axis!

LANDING: If the dice come out of your hand straight and without any off-axis spin, the next factor in the throw is the landing. There are two schools of thought with the landing that seem worthy to me; 1) hit, bounce, and stop & 2) roll end over end. School #1 employs a "dead cat bounce" or a bit of backspin (on axis, of course) to get minimal action once the dice hit the felt. School #2 uses a good amount of on-axis frontspin from the get-go to get them headed in the right direction. Like I said at the beginning, this is tough to explaing without a lot of graphics, but the concepts are what matter. It's about feel, comfort, and REPETITION.

THE WALL: As a general rule of thumb, a roll of the dice must cross the center of the table and hit the opposite back wall. The first part of this rule isn't really too much of a problem, it's the second that can cause a controlled throw some problems...but it doesn't have to. If you can get the dice very close to the back wall, perhaps even up against it, you will likely satisfy the dealers and have a great chance at keeping the bones on axis. Any dice that hit the wall with a controlled throw should be as soft as possible, preferably at the end of their travels. This is not as easy as it may sound, and is where the real DC earns his or her keep. In fact, finding a table crew that will repeatedly let you get away with not hitting the back wall is a good find and should be utilitized to the max without wearing out your welcome, of course. And this is where I once again plug a steady diet of dealer tokes...the dealers will often be a bit more forgiving when you're "playing for the crew."

Without the graces of graphics, pictures, and video, that is my shot at explaining a solid controlled throw. But the execution is really all that matters. Practice, practice, practice until it is comfortable, repeatable mechanics that you are able to pull off in the casino environment...with chips on the layout, your money on the line, people rooting for the point to come, and the box man glaring at you. It's your time to shine.

Fun At the Mohegan Sun

OK...first time at the Mohegan Sun, and I've gotta say that that casino is one heck of a spectacle. Beautiful artwork, a casino floor that seemed to go on forever (2 to be exact), free booze, and $5 minimum craps tables on a Sunday night. Heck, even the chips had some interesting designs on them. I kept a dollar chip, or should I say a "buck"?

The $5 minimums were nice to just get to the table, get your feet wet, and go from there. What I want to talk about in this post is the variety of players just at our end of the table. On this site, we've looked at Place bets, Line bets, Darkside play, and center action. That night sure seemed to have them all. I was playing a combination of Pass Line with Odds and placing the 6 & 8, and the table wasn't too volatile with that play. My lady was just flat betting on the Pass Line with an odds bet on occasion (she actually won more than I did!). We'll go around our side of the table to show you how varied the players were:

• The Come Bet Chaser: Guy was getting three Come Bets on the layout after the point was out (was on the Pass Line most of the time too). When the Come Bet traveled, odds would go up on it...and if an established bet got hit while a Come Bet was on deck, then he was ready to rock again. He had a good evening.
• The Loud Guy: Always had $5 on all the hardways and made some Place Bets, usually on the even numbers. The outside number bets and hardways wore him down, and he eventually lost out...even with having a great hand.
• Pressure Bettor: Typically was on the Pass Line with double odds, and placed the inside numbers. He came in at a great time, and his pressure of the Place bets worked brilliantly. Guy cashed out with quite the profit too (knew when to quit when ahead!). Even the Field bet was money for this guy too.
  
• Darksider: Most of the time, this guy played the Don't Pass Line with odds, sometimes with Place 6 & 8 as well. He switched to the Pass Line when he was shooting, but that didn't bode too well. His big downfall: he violated the key rule for darkside play--Don't keep betting against a player that beat you on the first point. He got caught keeping on the Don'ts with a couple shooters that made a few points in a hand (including myself).
  
• Place 'em All: Lady was usually Pass Line with placing most (if not all) other numbers. She would press the Place bets, and it worked quite well...excellent timing, because the table was seeing a lot of outside numbers for a period of time. She cashed out up a bit, and shot pretty well to boot.

I'd have to say that I shot the dice decently, but my big downfall was not being aggressive enough. Go figure! Numbers were coming in groups, and repeaters were making pressure bettors some good cash. In fact, the discussion we had on "Hot Numbers" and such in a previous post came into play that night. The 9 was surely a hot number for a good period of time, and I went in that direction several times...and it payed off. But, we played for over three hours having a good time, so the grind wore away at most of the profits that night. And, as I said before, my flat-betting lady did the damage that night. All went well though for a fun end to vacation.

Are "Hot" Numbers Just a Mirage?

I've gotta start by saying that I like this topic. Can a number or numbers be "hot" in a certain period of time at the table? From a mathematics standpoint: yes and no. From a craps player's point of view: absolutely. The big danger to betting streaks and hot numbers is that there is one thing for certain...they have to cool off at some point. If you only knew when, you could take full advantage of the situation and bring home the bacon. I hope to shed a little light on this subject.Let's start with the math angle first. There is some merit to streaky numbers in the craps game, and it all falls back on probability. Remember that the probability of any number being rolled at a particular time is dictated by the dice...and those probabilities should equalize in the long run. But in the short run, anything could happen. I've even seen four 12's rolled in a row, and that sure made some streak bettors some serious cash. The first question in all of this might be, "What separates the short term from the long run?" Without making statistical calculations, I can't be exact. But with 36 combinations of the dice and about 90 rolls per hour in the casino (a good range is 60 - 120 rolls per hour), we're looking at only less than 3 times through that complement of possibilities. Certainly there isn't enough info in charting the rolls over an hour or two to figure out if a certain number or numbers are "due".

So is there any point to comparing actual rolls to what the probabilities should bring about when you are live in the casino? Probably not, unless you are standing there for 5 or 6 hours. In a 1 - 2 hour craps session, you may be hard pressed to use the math to figure out hot numbers. Unless, of course, there is a really obvious circumstance like not seeing any 9's being rolled in an hour (probabilities say there should be about 11 of those in an hour)...that may clue you in on a mathematical shortcoming. But there are no guarantees, and that is starting to get into the realm of the savvy gambler's gift of perception.

A severe drought like that would likely prompt the savvy crapster to start looking at the Place 9 bet with a little more appeal. With short term probability, there is no guarantee, but extremes like that look for normalization. And that normalization could mean that a particular number is coming around the corner, and in heavy doses. But there is another angle to this perception, and it concerns making a move on a number that is currently on fire. We've seen it time and time again..."man that number is hot" or "every other throw is an X". When does it become enough already, it's time to get in on this action?

There aren't a whole lot of games that can produce this type of difficult decision...stick to the plan, or get on the bandwagon? There's no universal set of guidelines that I or anybody can give you; it's almost instinctual how a savvy player spots these advantages and cashes in more often than not. The only bit of advice I can offer with this respect is to pay attention and be aware. This is even moreso true when you can spot a prospective dice controller that is setting the dice and having decent results. Be aware. Look at what the DC is rolling. Look at what she is betting, or even what any of her partners are betting. If it's working, you may want to consider getting on board.

Where To Throw From?

A reader just asked recently about where is the best place to shoot from at the craps table for a dice controller. Well, unfortunatly, there is really no singular answer for every DC out there. But, I'd say that there is merit to three optimal positions around the craps table: immediately next to the stickman, straight away center, and at the far corner. To introduce the topic, we should get a better feeling for two factors that a DC should consider in live casino action: distance and angle.

Going with the logic that the dealers will likely require you to hit the back wall or at least get 'em to the back wall, distance is a big factor. We'll assess the positives and negatives of distance when we get into each of those positions. The angle is the second big factor, and that incorporates where you are targeting the landing to be with where you are shooting from. A typical angle would likely either be aiming down the center of the table, or in the corner. There are merits to both locations, and you may be called on needing to use both depending on how busy the table is and where players put their line and odds bets.

The mechanics of the dice throw are strictly a physical skill with a bit of mental concentration and muscle memory. Limited in what I am able to demonstrate graphically with this blog, I can only provide this little crude illustration below with text (that is where DC materials and sessions are a lucrative business...perhaps moreso than the application of the skill itself). Use your imagination and try it for yourself. With that in mind, the optimal result of a controlled dice throw begins with a release that provides minimal spin. Any rotation should be produced around the Z-axis...the rotation would be end-over-end down the table, not falling off to the side or spinning like a top. The landing would have little or no bounce, and once again, any rotation should be end-over-end "down" the table. The base of the wall is prime with little bounce, perhaps avoiding the diamond pattern of the wall, which is a randomizer of the roll. Area in which the dice land should absolutely, positively be clear of chips--those can screw it all up too.

NEXT TO STICK: Positioning yourself next to the stickman is a good spot, but make sure that it accommodates your dominant throwing arm (ambidextrosity would be the ultimate here!) with a full range of motion. Next to stick offers the shortest distance between you and the back wall, and a clear angle straight away and to the opposite corner. It is conducive to a throwing style in which the shooter hinges the wrist or the elbow. The big downfall to this one is if you have a fiesty stick who likes to torment shooters...mental fortitude and concentration can play a slightly bigger role in this position.

STRAIGHT AWAY: A solid location for a DC is straight away where you are separated from the dealers, have a full range of vision down the table, and the ability to shoot with either hand. However, this is the furthest distance from the back wall, but you can hit any angle...straight down the table or in either corner. Because it is all the way down the table, it favors a DC who can get the dice to sit quietly when they land (kind of like knocking a high golf shot with a wedge into a soft green) with minimal bounce and roll. A prime throwing style from this deep position would be one where the motion hinges at the shoulder to generate maximum distance and height with the least amount of spin.

THE FAR CORNER: The far corner can offer the DC a straight angle to the opposite corner or to the center of the back wall. It's about on par with the straight away position on distance, but if you are in the right corner for your throwing arm, you could use a throwing technique that hinges the wrist, elbow, or shoulder...a "combination" position that blends straight away with next to stick.

For what it's worth, that's my rundown on some solid places for a DC to shoot from. I personally feel that the throwing technique is an individual skill that must be comfortable to the player, easily repeatable, and of course, produce on-axis rolls of the dice. If you play in conditions where tables are full or your primary spot at the table is often occupied, learning to adapt to multiple places can make you a true "utility" DC.

Can You Be Both Right AND Wrong?

The title of this post might lead you to think a lot of different things, but with respect to craps it refers to playing both on the right and wrong sides of the game. Otherwise said as playing the Do's & Don'ts. Just as there are a ton of craps bets, there are more combinations you can make of those bets. What we'll talk about here is some common ways that a player can combine both sides of the line.

DOEY-DON'T: This is an interesting play that I have seen from time to time, but not personally used at the table. Simply stated, the player makes a Pass Line bet and a Don't Pass bet for the same amount at come-out. What this player wants to see is for the point to travel, then the decision to either take or lay odds is made. Because the 2, 3, 7, & 11 on the come-out roll is a wash with both bets out (12 is a loss on the Pass, and a push on the Don't), the only risk at this point is a 12 rolling...which is a 1/36 chance. With a point established, the Doey-Don't player can just make a zero-advantage bet on the odds and go from there.

DON'T & PLACE: Sometimes, a Darkside player isn't necessarily one-dimensional. With an outside number such as 4 or 10 as the point, making a Place bet on the 6 and/or 8 can be a profitable supplement to the Don't bet that holds a 33.3% advantage. While "waiting" for that 7 to come and win the DP bet, this player could rack up some hits on those solid place bets in the meantime. This technique is often employed with a one-hit-and-down philosophy to avoid lengthy exposure of that money. In other situations, there may actually be the mindset of that Don't bet as a "hedge" for those place bets. The big negatives with that thought include the violation of one of my favorite rules: If the 7 is working in your favor, don't dilute that advantage with other bets.

ALTERNATING BETS: Difficult to evaluate mathematically and sometimes perpetual, I have seen a player using a strategy that simply alternated bets on each roll of the dice from Do to Don't. What does that mean? Starting out with a Pass Line bet, the player would make a Don't Come bet before the next roll, a Come bet on the next, Don't Come after that, and so on. What's the advantage to that? Hell if I know, but I imagine it's good for the guy who wants new action on every roll of the dice. The table wasn't too hot that day, so I never got to see what happens when all the numbers get covered. I put this one out there for you, but I sure hope you never use it! Of course, on a lucky day, it could be the silver bullet too...you sure never know.

PLACE 'EM & KNOCK 'EM DOWN: OK, so maybe I gave it this little name, but I saw it played and had no idea what you would call it. The player would place all of the numbers (most of the time, sometimes just the inside numbers) after the come-out, and would make continuous Don't Come bets until each of those Place bet numbers were hit. So bascially, his bets consisted of either travelled Don't Come bets or Place bets on each of the numbers on the layout. An interesting concept, but it's weakness really lies with quick 7-outs (that's a killer for almost any system) or repeated hits on a couple different numbers. The perfect situation would be where each of the numbers get hit once and then the 7-out. Hmm...don't we all wish for that "perfect" situation with money on the line.

Well, I have to summarize playing both sides of the line as highly volatile but interesting nonetheless. The lone exception to this philosophy would be the Doey-Don't, where the main objective is getting the odds bet out there at no disadvantage to the player. The only number that slips it up is the 12 on the come-out, but beyond that, it is a solid grind play that can keep a player in the game for quite a while.

The Darkside, Or Is It?

When you hear the term "The Darkside", some people may think of a Ouigi board, witchcraft, or even this guy: (gotta love the internet for weird pictures)

But when it comes to the game of craps, the Darkside is a blanket term that covers bets like Don't Pass, Don't Come, Lay bets, etc. It goes by other names like "The Don'ts" or "Wrong-Way" as well. Most craps players know how those don't bets work, but for those who aren't exactly sure what those bets on the layout mean, here is a quick and dirty explanation. The Don't Pass works the opposite of the Pass Line, and the Don't Come works the opposite of the Come bet...2 & 3 are natural winners, 7 & 11 are natural losers, and the 12 often pushes (the difference maker, kind of like the 0 or 00 in roulette). If a point is established, the Don't player is looking for the shooter to 7-out before the point number is rolled. "Laying" odds is the opposite of taking odds, and the Don't player must lay 2:1 on 4/10, 3:2 on 5/9, and 6:5 on 6/8 rather than receive those payouts.

OK...that was a very fast overview of the Don't bets. Why on earth would anyone want to bet against the shooter and possibly pay more money than you could receive? It really boils down to one factor: the power of the 7. Remember, the 7 is the most powerful number in this game for a couple of reasons, namely that it is the most probable one on the dice. With the Don't bets, a player is just waiting for the 7 to come once the point is traveled...and 7 isn't called the "Inevitable Seven" for nothing. It's the number that can end it all.

Let's look inside the math on the Don't bets (Don't Pass & Don't Come are inherently similar in function, so we'll look at them as the same for this purpose). Remember the Rule of Thirds way back in the beginning of this blog? Well, the Don't bets operate under that principle too...1/3rd of the time it will be resolved, and the other 2/3rds of the time the point will likely travel. The bets are resolved when a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 is rolled, but the 12 being a push changes that Rule of Thirds a bit:

2 & 3: WIN (25% of resolved probability, 8.33% of all probability)

7 & 11: LOSS (66.67% of resolved probability, 22.22% of all probability)

12: PUSH (8.33% of resolved probability, 2.78% of all probability)

So, you can see that there is actually a 45.45% disadvantage that is a direct result of the 7 being so strong and the 12 NOT being a natural win on the Don'ts. However, that is expected for only 1/3 of all come-out rolls, and there is a considerable advantage for the player once the point travels. When it does, you'll see that you NEVER want to take a Don't bet down:

POINT 6 or 8: 9.09% advantage (6 ways to win, 5 to lose)

POINT 5 or 9: 20% advantage (6 ways to win, 4 to lose)

POINT 4 or 10: 33.33% advantage (6 ways to win, 3 to lose)

Those player advantages are strong, considering that the overall Don't bet carries a house advantage of 1.37%. It's not a slam dunk, but winning on the Don'ts once the point has traveled is kind of like a layup you could say. The converse of the Pass & Come bets, these Darkside bets require a mindset that can weather come out 7s & 11s and the usual pro-shooter tone of the craps table.

And that brings up the next point about playing on the Darkside...they don't call it that for nothin'! We've discussed superstitions on this site several posts ago, and you could definitely conclude that many craps players are somewhat superstitious. To those folks, a Darkside player can be seen as the enemy, a chiller for the house, or even bad luck for the table. It may sound a bit extreme, but those people are out there...so a Don't player sometimes needs a thick skin to take some rude comments, snotty looks, and snarls from the players at times.

The final point to consider on the Don'ts deals with odds. To me, laying odds on these bets doesn't do it for me. I'll put it this way: when the point has traveled on a Don't bet, you have an advantage ranging from 9 - 33%...why lay more to get paid less with a no-advantage bet? At this point, making a bet with no advantage just dilutes your edge. On the other side of the coin, a more aggressive player may see the advantage as the prime time to get more money out there, regardless of whether you are laying more than the payoff. It's yet another philosophical call, and really no wrong answer.

Technique is in the Hand of the Diceholder

The technique of dice control (DC) is one that cannot be mastered by the unprepared. Because it is a skill that combines dexterity and concentration, there is something to be said about effective practice. Some friends have asked me to talk a little more about what "practice" really means to me, and what they could take from it. Of course, this is my opinion so you can take or leave what you wish...

First off, DC to me centers (pun intended) on keeping the dice on the prescribed axis enough to give you an expected player advantage for the bet(s) on the layout. What is "enough"? Well, we got into the mathematical side of that topic several posts back and roughly determined that the dice need to be kept on axis about 1 in every 3 rolls to deliver that consistent advantage. OK, so there's a benchmark that one can strive for in your practice sessions. This post will focus on the physical aspect of practicing DC...the mental aspect has two keys: memorization of the sets & bets, and concentration.

The simplest way to work on keeping the dice on axis at home is to toss the dice on your carpet, rug, bed, whatever. Sure, it's not representative of a craps table in the least, but it is a start. It gives you an opportunity to learn a comfortable grip on the dice...and that's where it all begins, like a golf swing. So maybe that's a decent analogy to use for all of this--a golf swing. Find a comfortable grip that won't lead to the dice twisting out of your hand from the get-go. It's hard to keep the dice on axis when they don't even start that way! I found my own technique, but you could search the web for pictures such as on this site: http://crapscoach.com/dicegrips.htm

With a solid grip, the toss from there is all about the swing. There are other experts out there that will show you what they use for DC, but sometimes it is all about learning what works for you through trial and error. And that has been my mantra...I am a do-it-your-selfer of sorts, and that's all I can offer here. You want to minimize the number of parts moving on your arm when you throw. Dice control begins with body control. Whether you go more with the wrists or just swivel at the shoulder, it should be fluid and end with dice almost floating through the air with little or no rotation. And if there is rotation, it needs to be around that axis. The end result should be a toss where the dice land in the target area with little or no bounce, the likely result of a knuckle ball-like throw with nearly no rotation. The target area should be as close to the back wall as possible, but in such a way that the dice don't go careening off the diamond pattern. Simple enough (poor joke).

The easiest way for me to know if my dice have been kept on axis when practicing is by not worrying about the particular "set" at that time. Arranging the dice to the particular axis pre-throw is not really the hard part, it's keeping them on that axis that is. So, when practicing my throw, I generally keep the 1's on the central axis and that makes it pretty much a slam-dunk knowing if they stayed where I wanted them to. Easy to keep track of too.

But, we all know that casino craps isn't played on the floor...and there's also walls around the table with a diamond texture to negotiate. Uggh, sounds like we need a craps table in the garage to practice if you really want to get serious. Well, not exactly. Anyone with a few tools and the right motivation could build a stowable practice box that combines a few simple elements: the table surface, walls, and some dimensions. To avoid getting into breaking down step-by-step directions, I'll push you further into the depths of the internet. If you found me, you can definitely find some simple (free) instructions on how to build anything from a practice box that you can take out of the closet and put on the dining room table, to a full-blown casino craps table. The world is your oyster...just check out what these guys did:

http://www.the-pattersons.net/DougsBlog/?page_id=219

Superstitions

Well folks, this post is a break from the usual math and strategy talk...it's about supersitions at the dice table. If there is any group of people on the face of this Earth that are more superstitious, it would be gamblers. Sitting at the computer, these thoughts are even a bit laughable. But at the table with your money at risk, it can be easy to fall for such beliefs that have pretty much become part of the culture of the game of craps, handed down by each chucker of the dice. Check out some of these more common superstitions:

• DICE OFF OF THE TABLE, 7 IS COMING: This is a classic. You may often see one or several people religiously take their bets down or just turn them off for one roll after a die jumps the wall to the floor. Of course, the level-head knows that the probability of a 7 coming is the same regardless of where the dice ended up 10 seconds earlier. But, many of us have selective memories and hold on to those times where a 7 did end up being rolled...however, those folks just as easily forget about the times where it was not a 7 (about 83% of the time!).


• SEE A HORN, BET A HORN: If you have spent any decent amount of time at the dice table, you've probably seen the guy who knows that a horn roll (2, 3, 11, or 12) is coming right after one has been spotted. An omen, perhaps? If it does come right back, then the planets were in line...if not, well, maybe next time.


• NEVER SAY THE WORD "SEVEN": Hell, I admit to this one. It's pretty much bad form to mention the word "seven" at the dice table, for fear that it will evoke The Devil, a.k.a. the seven. Of course, the Don't or Darkside player wouldn't mind that so much...but they are typically a minority at a standard craps table. Not that the utterance of this word actually cause the dice to roll a certain way, but moreso that it can really give you some nasty looks thrown your way!


• IF THE STICKMAN TURNS THE DICE OVER TO A 7, IT'S COMING: Once again, pure superstition...but if he does that to me while I'm shooting, I sure as hell shake them up (can't hurt, right)!


• DICE THAT HIT THE BOXMAN'S CHIPS WILL TURN A 7: Notice a theme here?!? Well, not that there is anything a player could do about it at that stage in the roll, but I've heard this one (especially when a 7 does come).


• GET THE DEALERS ON YOUR SIDE WITH A TOKE: Maybe not so much a superstition, but a hope that toking (tipping) for the dealer will get them to pay you extra, forget to take a losing bet, etc. Well, to be honest with you, I don't know if this one is coincidental or if it really does have some merit. From personal experience, if you are over-paid when you've bet for the dealer, just take it.

This is a good point to ease away from the superstition topic and get into the debate about toking the crew. I am a personal advocate for tipping the dealers if the dealers are entertaining and I am not losing at a horrific pace. That being said, there are a couple schools of thought on tipping...one is making bets for the dealers in the course of play, the other being a tip when you color up your chips.

If things are going well, and the dealers are doing a good job in my eyes, I will either put a dollar on the Pass Line for them or even do a two-way hard way bet...which basically means $1 for me and $1 for them. The other side of the coin with tipping the crew is just giving them some money when you color up at the end of the session, but I typically only do that if I had a winning or near-winning session and the dealers have been accommodating.

From the Line to the Numbers

After my most recent trip to Atlantic City, I realized that I should touch on one my favorite strategies at the dice table that takes advantage of three of the most solid bets in the game: Pass Line and Place 6 & 8. If you've read any of the posts on here lately, you would probably get the drift that I highly favor those bets...and I do because they are about as reliable as craps bets get. There is one thing to remember with all of this information, though, and it is that the dice have no memory, and any number could come up at any time (within the confines of the dice probabilities). That being said, let's get into it.

I've spoke about playing the Pass Line, but keeping the odds bet at 1x only (completely up to the player's philosophy though). I've also mentioned that if you are going to make Place bets, do the 6 & 8 together. And that leads into one of my preferred way of playing, and that is what I call Pass & Place. Pass & Place starts out with each new hand (each shooter) in the same way...the Pass Line bet. Keep with this bet on any come out naturals, and follow it with 1x odds when a point is established. Simple enough. If the number does not pass, start over...if it does, take it down. Now is where you Place the 6 & 8, and just ride it out.

The only way it could get any easier is if you just played the Pass Line each roll, or if you Place those numbers each roll. It's a combo bet without having to expose yourself to three numbers if the point is not a 6 or 8 (which isn't too bad of a play, but can often get you into having too many units on the layout). Go back to the math on these two bets, and use logic with the Pass Line bet. Overall, it's got about a 1.42% house edge on it, most of which is derived after the point is established. As we've mentioned in the past, the Pass Line bet holds a high advantage for the player during the come out roll, but then swings to a high favor for the house once the point is established (obviously not as high with the 6 or 8 than the 4 or 10 though).

But on a more practical note than all of the advantage percentages, playing the Pass Line for the first point only has tactical strength...a second winning point is less likely than only one winner, and a third is even less likely than that. So, by locking down a more probable win on one pass, you can then shift those winnings (on a $10 table taking 1x odds: $24 on 6/8; $25 on 5/9; $30 on 4/10) to Place bets on 6 & 8 ($24 total). The combined bets on 6 & 8 holds only a 1% house edge, and now those bets are at no risk to you from the winning Pass Line bet! Granted, however, you have to factor in those hands where no point is made and you lose your initial Pass Line & Odds investment.

In the casino environment, this strategy of play can be sustainable (limited to $24 at risk on a $10 minimum table) for lengthy sessions at the dice table, with a decent shot at profit. It has definitely proven to be a solid play for me in multiple sessions, and certainly was last weekend at one of Mr. Trump's establishments on the Jersey Shore. It's something to consider, and a page for the ol' craps playbook.

Regressive or Progressive?

In the last post, we discussed some betting philosophies especially when it comes to Place betting. When you break it down in simple terms, there's the Flat Bet player, Pressure player(s), and the Regressive player. I'm basically a combo Pass Line-Place Bet guy myself (if anyone really cares). But this is my blog, and I'm going to tell you why I roll this way. Over a decent amount of time, I have worked to compile data regarding how many hits on the Place 6 & 8 a player can expect to get before a 7-out...and by hits, I mean number of times either one of those two core bets pay off. Below is approximate data collected in real-life and simulated craps games, showing total number of hits per dice hand and the percentage observed:

0 hits: 34%
1 hit: 28%
2 hits: 15%
3 hits: 11%
4 hits: 6%
5 hits: 1%
6+ hits: 5%

Looking at those probabilities, we can make a few simple statements relating to betting philosophy:

• A player should expect to receive no hits on the Place 6 & 8 about 1/3 of the hands.
• A Flat Bet player will have their Place 6 & 8 bets "paid for" after two hits, or only about 38% of the time.
• A Pressure player looking to bump up both Place 6 & 8 bets after locking down a profit (after 3 hits), would only get that far less than 1/4 of all hands.
• A Regressive player can lock in a profit about 2/3rds of the dice hands.

Using the comments I've made above, it would seem that the most logical play is to use a regression technique in which (assuming $10 minimum table) the Place 6 & 8 are made at $24 each up front. After the first hit (remember that 2/3rds of all dice hands will show at least 1 hit on those numbers before the 7-out); the player collects $28, pulls back $12 each from the Place bets, and now has $4 in profit with money on the table. Sounds great, but...

Remember that the regressive technique requires a lot of money up front until that 1st Place bet hit comes. And that "lots of money" is in the sum of $48, which will likely get wiped out every 1 in 3 hands...which can be a lot to overcome if you hit a rough streak of 3 or 4 hands like that. So, once again, we are at odds with the long-term probabilities and the volatility of the short-run.

That's why I combine a slimmed-down regression technique with flat betting...and by slimmed down I mean half-assed. By betting the Place 6 & 8 at 3 units ($18 each), I am cutting my upfront exposure in half with respect to flat betting while benefitting from using the odds of getting that one hit minimum in a hand (about 2/3rds of all hands). After one hit, I collect the $21, regress back to 2 units each, and sit there at a $3 deficit with my Place bets ready for the next hit. You can see, though, I am at a slight deficit after two hits but with less exposure to a quick 7-out. Not as fully effective as a true regression play in the long run, but not as fully volatile in the short term either.

You may have noticed that I did not include any pressing or parlaying of those Place bets either. That is because I have a strong philosophy against it, with some decent math behind it too. Why so? Because there is one thing that the craps player can count on, and that is the 7 is inevitable...look at the probabilities above, and you can see that the probabilities for hits decreases rather steadily as the number of hits increases. The pressure or parlay play is hoping for the hot hand, which does come around, but not as often as you need it to. Think of it this way: taking the winnings from a Place bet hit and putting it back on the number(s) is like taking a sure thing and gambling on the long shot. Take your advantage where you can get it, and go with the odds. The pressure or parlay money you "reinvest" is likely not going to pay off for another hit or two after the next...so why throw it out there when a flat bet hit is still going to pay?!?

Anyhow, that's my 2 cents. Next time, mixing the Pass Line in with those Place bets.

Aristotle or Socrates???

What's your craps philosophy? Heck, what's your gambling philosophy? The thing about craps players is that you could have a full table and may not find a pair of players that play the same way. Right-side, dark-side, prop bets, place bets, inside numbers, outside numbers, field...well, you get the point. But, I think that anybody who is a savvy craps player (or who has checked out the early posts of this blog :P ) can throw out a large portion of the bets offered in this casino game. And that's where we'll start.

Look at the core bets with low house advantages like line bets (both Pass and Don't Pass) and Place bets. You could even get rid of the outside numbers (4, 5, 9, & 10) from the Place bet consideration because they can eat away at your bankroll too, dice control aside. So, we can say that the core craps bets are on the line and Place 6/8. With DC, you could expand your game to all the Place bet numbers and the Hard Ways. But to be brutally honest, DC can't really even make the outside numbers look as good as the 6/8.

So what is your philosophy, then? Aggressive, conservative, or a hybrid player? We should start by exploring the minds of many craps players with regard to how they view betting. For the sake of convenience, we'll use a scenario where the players primarily Place both the 6 and 8 for $12 each...

THE PRESSURE PLAYER: When that 6 or 8 is rolled, the Pressure Player wants to press that bet up 1 unit (another $6) and let some of the winnings ride. The good thing with that philosopy is that the player can take more advantage of a "hot number" that keeps getting rolled over and over. In this case, if the 6 gets rolled twice the player will have won $8 on the first roll (after pressing $6), and another $15 (after pressing another $6). Of course, the main negative aspect of pressing agressively like this is that you are giving away your up-front winnings to get a potential higher return if the number is hit repeatedly. You actually stand to come out behind if the 7 comes before several rolls of your place bet(s). The far extreme of the Pressure Player is THE PARLAY PLAYER, who will re-bet all of the winnings back on to the number in hopes of another winner before the 7. A much riskier move, but one with a bigger reward.

THE REGRESSIVE PLAYER: This player actually takes somewhat of an opposite view of the pressure player by looking at those two $12 Place bets as a $24 liability on the table if the 7 comes. So, the Regressive Player wants to be able to lock up that $24 ASAP by betting enough up front to play with the house's money from that first hit on. For example, this player will Place the 6 and 8 for $24 each...so with a hit on either number, $28 will be returned to the player. Those Place bets are then knocked down to $12 each ($24 total) at no risk to the player, and $4 profit has been banked. Any more hits on those numbers are pure profit. The con side to this philosophy is that a quick 7 before either Place bet is hit means a big blow--a $48 loss, which may take quite a while to recoup.

THE FLAT BET PLAYER: Finally, the Flat Bet Player keeps the bet at the same level regardless of whether the numbers are hot or not. With the two-Place bet system in this circumstance, the Flat Bet Player can be profiting from a hand after two hits before the 7 spoils the action. Those two hits (on the same or different numbers) will produce $14 each, whereas the bets only cost $12 each. Any other subsequent hits will produce pure profit since those Place bets are "paid for". The flip side to this method is that hot streaks of numbers, say, a hand that produces five rolls of the 6 before it is done would give the player only five flat payoffs of $14. A pressure or parlay philosophy would likely net more in such a fortunate situation.

So, then, what is the best way to manage Place bets? What is the best philosophy? That is certainly personal preference, but we should take a step back and remember (DC aside) that the bets carry the same house advantage on them regardless of how much money is wagered, how many rolls have gone by in the hand, etc. Therefore, the Flat Bet Player would seem to carry the advantage then. But pressing or parlaying seems to take advantage of that home run dice hand, and regression sounds like it would bring you to a profit situation the soonest. Perhaps we're back to where we started at, but the next post will talk about some hybrid method(s) that may be a good fit for some of us players that have a conservative, but yet go-for-the-gusto approach.

The Other Three Sets

The final three of the six possible sets deserve considerably less attention in my eyes. For each of them, I'll provide a picture of the set and a table that shows what bets can be advantageous. As a word of caution, I must say that the player-friendly bets are very limited with these three. Therefore, I suggest sticking with the Hardways set for the comeout and either the Flying V or Mini V for rolling numbers.

ALL SEVENS--


CROSSED SIXES--


STRAIGHT SIXES--

The V Sets

The "Flying V" set...as advertised in the last post, in my opinion the most versatile and powerful set that a DC uses in the course of a dice hand. Some call it the Big V or 3V set, but the key in identifying the correct axis is the position of the threes on the dice. The threes come together at a point to give the look of a V or wings flying. Why is this set so versatile and powerful? In the table below, you can see that it is a very effective set when the point is 5, 6, 8, or 9; and can be used to hit those same Place bets.


Very interesting. So now, you can see the full power of this incredible set. And, if you were a DC just getting your feet wet in the casino environment and just wanted to keep things simple and limited to using 1 set, this is a good one to come out with too. Not as great as the Hard Way Set, but good nonetheless.




The "Mini V" set is one that is good for all of the point numbers, whether they are your point or being Placed. The effects on the 5 & 9 are equal to that of the Flying V, but is a bit weaker for the 6 & 8. On the other hand, this is pretty much the sole set that can make the 4 & 10 profitable.

The "Hard Way" Set

Of the six different sets that a DC can use, the Hard Way set is a great place to start. The picture above shows how the dice can look if set up this way. Notice that the faces of the dice are each of the four hard ways...4, 6, 8, & 10.

But why would we want to set them this way? Well, we need to understand the probabilities of the dice if they stay ON AXIS. The info below compares the random outcomes of the dice with the outcomes if controlled successfully. It is displayed in the following format (since I can't figure out how to import a table), with number pairs joined together:

Dice outcome (# random possibilities, # controlled possibilities)

2/12 (1 , 0)

3/11 (2 , 0)

4/10 (3 , 1)

5/9 (4 , 2)

6/8 (5 , 3)

7 (6 , 4)

Remember that the dice, if kept on axis, will only have 16 possible outcomes as compared to 36 when rolled randomly. With that in mind, you can see that this set gives a 25% chance of rolling a 7 (16.7% random), and no craps numbers. There is also an increased probability of rolling a 6 or 8 (18.8% controlled to 13.9% random). So, why is this so important to the DC then? If there is an increased chance of rolling a 7, no craps numbers, and better odds at rolling a 6 or 8; one could say that the Hard Way set is a great set for the come out roll. Fair enough, but we should look at the math behind that claim...

For the come out roll, a player betting the pass line wins on 7 & 11 but loses on 2, 3, & 12. All other numbers become the shooter's point. If there are no "losing numbers" with this set, but an increased chance of a winner, that's not half bad! As a matter of fact, the player's advantage on the Pass Line bet goes from 33.3% to 100%! A 100% advantage means you can't lose the bet, and that's the ultimate advantage. And if you would happen to roll a point number with this set, you've got an increased chance that it's going to be a 6 or 8...the "easiest" of the possible point numbers.

Obviously, a great set to come out with (actually the best of all six as we will eventually find out), but it is pretty impractical to expect that a DC be able to keep the dice on axis every single roll. And that thought leads us to the next burning question...how often must a DC be able to keep the dice on axis to tilt the odds in his favor? Well, the math has been done and is shown below for this set and the Pass Line bet on the come out roll, as well as all the hardways. The answer has been given in relation to what the player's edge would be if the dice are kept on axis once in X many rolls:

So this set takes a player's advantage in a random situation and ramps it up depending on the skill (chance of keeping dice on axis) of the DC. In the next post, we'll look at a personal favorite set of mine because of it's strength and versatility...the Flying V set. The math is a bit more interesting as well, because it is actually the "best" at taking several negative-expectation bets and turning the disadvantage into a player's advantage with skill.

Control Your Dice!

So, we know that the game of craps offers some of the best bets in the casino...but those bets are still tilted in the favor of the house. That being said, craps is arguably the most exciting game out there as well. For the seasoned gambler, blackjack holds a unique advantage because of card counting. Simply put, a card counter (generically, an advantage player) tries to make big bets and make alternative decisions when the remaining cards are favorable. That can put the advantage on the player.

Craps, as we have seen in earlier posts, is made up of many bets...pretty much more than any other game in the house. Some have a minimal house edge, and some are downright horrible for the player. But there is a concept out there called Dice Control (DC), which is made up of a simple premise that involves a skill and the alteration of random dice probabilities. The simple premise: set the dice on a predetermined axis, and throw them so that they remain on that axis. Simple enough?...

Look at the dice above. imagine a narrow pole inserted through the side of the die that shows 1, and continue that through the other die. Then, imagine throwing the dice so that they do not rotate to the sides, essentially rotating around that imaginary pole (the axis). When the dice hit the felt and the back wall, they still don't fall off to the side. THAT is effective dice control. And THAT is a skill that ventures way beyond mathematics and bankroll...it's a skill of dexterity.

What we need to look at first to best understand the potential benefits of DC is what an on-axis roll can offer the player. If a dice throw is made to rotate around that one axis only, the shooter can effectively reduce the potential outcomes of the dice to 16...not 36. Obviously, the standard distribution of outcomes is going to be changed as well, and that is where the successful DC can take advantage of savvy, targeted betting. It should be noted here, before we get into the breakdown of the six sets, that there is no way to set the dice to eliminate the 7. I repeat...no way to eliminate the 7 with any preset. But there is a way to reduce it's dominance when you want to, and a way to accentuate it's dominance when you need it.

In the next post, we'll look at the first of those sets...the Hard Way set. We'll look at the distribution of possible outcomes, how that distribution works with some of the game's best bets, and how "skilled" of a DC you need to be to get an advantage. But first, what determines how skilled you are? That's a term that is relatively undefined, but we could try to define it quantitatively. For each of the sets and bets that we look at, there will be data showing what frequency a DC must be able to consistently keep the dice on axis. Is that every other roll, once every 5 rolls, or only once every 20 rolls? It's all in the math, but only practice and good technique truly make a real DC.

Place Bets Here and There

Well, we've established that some of the best bets in the game of craps hinge on the Pass Line and Place bets. Of course, last time around we said that if you've got the 7 working for you (such as on the come out with a Line bet), don't water your big advantage down with other bets. Now, we should look at Place bets and see what happens when you Place more than one number at a time.

First, here's a recap of the house edge for each of the Place bets:

• 6 or 8: 1.52% (pays 7:6)
• 5 or 9: 4.00% (pays 7:5)
• 4 or 10: 6.67% (pays 9:5)

Next, we'll assume that the minimum bet at the table is $10 ($5 are harder to find these days). When it's said that the 6 or 8 is placed, it will be for $12 each...and $10 each on the 4, 5, 9, or 10 when those are mentioned. This is an even distribution of Place bets. Alright--here are the Place bet combinations and the house edge for the entire play lumped as a whole:

• Place 6 & 8: 10 ways to win, 6 ways to lose -- 1.04% house edge
• Place the Inside Numbers (5, 6, 8, & 9): 18 ways to win, 6 ways to lose -- 1.14% house edge
• Place the Outside Numbers (4, 5, 9, & 10): 14 ways to win, 6 ways to lose -- 2.50% house edge
• Place all of the Numbers Across (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, & 10): 24 ways to win, 6 ways to lose -- 1.25% house edge
• Place 5 & 9: 8 ways to win, 6 ways to lose -- 2.86% house edge

Looking at all that up there, you can see that combining Place bets is not half bad. If you bet both the 6 & 8, you have a combined house edge less than that of just making one of those bets (1.52% house edge). Heck, you can even Place the inside numbers (5, 6, 8, & 9) or all the numbers with a lower house advantage than a Pass Line bet. Not too bad. What happens if you take a "Win on Anything But 7" approach?

To do that you could bet: $12 to Place the 6 & 8, $10 to Place the 5, and $10 on the Field (2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, & 12). For $44, you can collect on any number rolled except for a 7. Keeping in mind that the Field bet is a one-roll bet that needs to be replaced each time it comes down (loses), the house edge on this entire play is 1.77%. For a player that wants action on every roll of the dice, this isn't too bad of a way to do it.

Me, though, I'm a 6 & 8 man...but there is definitely money to be made by combining the best bets at the table. We've got a trip coming up with a shot at Argosy in Lawrenceburg, IN. Next post, I'll talk about how the dice game treated us and what strategy I chose to play.

Stay Out of the Hedges

Hedge bets. These combinations of bets come about when a player wants to "offset" the risk of losing one bet by making another. Sounds like a good idea, kinda like an insurance policy on a bet. Well, in this post we'll look at some popular hedge bet combinations to see if they're all they are cracked up to be. I don't often delve into playing against the shooter, or "playing from the Don'ts", so I am going to make the assumption that most hedge bets are in conjunction with a Pass Line bet.

The baseline scenario we need to establish for what we're going to look at is the effectiveness of the Pass Line bet during the come out roll only. Why? Well, once the point is established, there is only one number that will win that bet (the point) and one number that will lose you that bet (the 7). During the come out, we know that your Pass Line bet wins on 7 & 11, but loses on 2, 3, & 12. That being said, there are 12 out of 36 combinations of the dice that will resolve the Pass Line bet on the spot. The 7 & 11 (winners) are responsible for 8 of those natural outcomes, whereas the craps numbers (losers) account for the other 4 possible outcomes. The other 24 (composed of the 4, 5, 6, 8, & 9), won't make you an instant winner or loser...the point is then established. So, for the come out roll only, the player's edge on the bet is 33.33%. That is the yardstick by which we will be measuring the following two hedge methods:

• The PASS LINE w/ ANY CRAPS combo--a player making a $10 Pass Line bet may wish to protect it with an Any Craps bet since those numbers (2, 3, & 12) are the only ones that can beat the Line bet. So, you throw down one measly dollar to cover $7 of your $10 Pass Line bet to take the sting out of a craps number being thrown on the come out. Unfortunately, this combination bet has a calculated player edge of 9.09%...positive for the player, but still pales in comparison to the 33.33% edge you have if you play the Line straight up. Remember, you lose the Any Craps bet if a 2, 3, or 12 are not rolled. Say you want to make it a $2 Any Craps bet to cover all of your Pass Line loss if craps are rolled--your edge drops further to 7.41%.

OK, so the Any Craps bet is bad by itself (11.11% house edge), and it sucks down your advantage on the come out roll. What about the Field then as a hedge?

• The PASS LINE w/ FIELD combo--a player making a $10 Pass Line bet may wish to hedge with a Field bet as well. Look at it this way, the Field covers all the craps numbers as well as some other point numbers. And it includes the 11...a double payday if the Yo is rolled on the come out! Plus, the Field bet carries a lower house edge than the Any Craps bet by itself. Well, if you make a $10 Pass Line bet and a $10 Field bet, the player's advantage on the come out is only 2.78% (4.17% if either the 2 or 12 pays triple). A horrendous blow to that 33.33% the solo Pass Line bet gives you.

Alright, so maybe hedging against those come out killers of your Pass Line bet is not that great of an idea. What about taking the best bets in the game and playing them together on the come out? Not so much a hedge, but a power move you could say.

• The PASS LINE w/ PLACE 6 & 8 working on the come out--by making a Pass Line bet and Placing the 6 & 8 to work on the come out, you could be taking advantage of the three strongest numbers in the game of craps: 6, 7, & 8! Looking at a $10 Place Bet and $12 Placed on both the 6 & 8, the player's advantage on the come out roll is only 4.81%. Heck, that's even lower than hedging it with the Any Craps bet. Maybe we're looking at it wrong...let's up the Pass Line bet amount and keep the Place bets at table minimum (assuming a $10 table). With a $15 Line bet, the player's advantage increases to 6.53%. Better, but still nothing compared to 33.33%. $20 on the Line...7.85%. $25 on the line...8.91%. You get the drift.

I think it is safe to make a consise statement about these observations. When you have the 7 working for you, don't make bets that dilute the best advantage you can ever get in craps. If you have a Pass Line bet on the come out, you have a 33.33% advantage... nothing comes close to this, so don't water it down with other hedge bets or side bets that can cut into it. Save the Place bets for after the come out, and try to stay away from those other bets. Remember the last lesson???

Next time--Place bet combinations.

Not So Good and Bad Bets

So, we've hit on a few key bets so far--the Line (Pass and Don't Pass), Odds, and Place bets. You're probably asking, "Well, what about all those other spaces on the table layout? How do I bet on those?" I'd have to say, "Don't bet on them." This post will break down seven more types of less-optimal bets that the craps player should stay away from 99.9% of the time.

1. The FIELD bet. Occupying a considerable amount of space on the craps layout, this bet can be found on both ends of the table and lists the numbers which make it up (2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, and 12). The amount of numbers alone included as even-money winners seem pretty nice to the player, and many casinos double the payout on the 2 & 12. Some even triple the payout on one of them! But if we do the math and figure out the house edge on this bet, even with the double and/or triple incentive...it is 5.56%, 2.78% if either the 2 or 12 is tripled. Doesn't seem so good any more, does it? If you want to, though, you can make that bet yourself by placing your chips in the Field box. This is a one-roll bet.
2. The HARDWAYS bets. These are found in the center of the table, and are typically represented by pairs of dice graphics (e.g. 3 3, 5 5, etc.). A player can bet a Hardway usually for a minimal $1, and can get paid 9:1 for 6 or 8, or 7:1 for 4 or 10. However, the Hardway bet loses if one of two things happen; 1) a 7 is rolled, or 2) the number comes "easy" (which means that if you bet Hard 6 and a 2-4 is rolled, you lose the Hardway bet). That being said, the house edge on these bets are 9.09% for 6 & 8 and 11.11% for 4 & 10. To make this bet, you need to book it with the center dealer, who will place it in the appropriate box(es).
3. The ANY 7 or BIG RED bet. This too is a bet found in the center of the layout, and is a one-roll bet. If a 7 is rolled on the next roll, you win $4 for each dollar wagered. If you think back to one of the first posts, you should remember that for each roll of the dice there is a 1/6 chance of rolling a 7. So if you're only getting paid 4:1, the house edge is a whopping 16.67%! Stay away from this one...there's better ways to get the 7 to work for you.
4. The ANY CRAPS bet. Just like the Any 7 bet, this one is pretty poor too. The payout on this bet is 7:1, but there are only 4 ways to roll the craps numbers (2, 3, & 12) out of 36 possibilities. So that's 1 in 9, and you're only getting paid 7:1...that makes the house edge 11.11%. Just say no to that one.
5. The YO and ACE-DEUCE bets. Although these are separate bets found in the center of the layout, they are similar in nature. Bet a buck on the 11 (Yo) or 3 (Ace-Deuce) and you can turn in into $15. Unfortunately, your odds of hitting this one-time bet are 1 in 18...and the house edge is 11.11% as well.
6. The ACES and MIDNIGHT bets. Just like the Yo and Ace-Deuce bets, but even worse! Although you can turn $1 into $30 if you hit it, the odds of rolling a 2 (Aces) or 12 (Midnight) are 1 in 36. Since the house edge on these are 13.89%, you might as well go play keno and try to hit the jackpot!
7. Finally, the BIG 6 and BIG 8 bets. I have to be a little frank with these bets...they are the stupidest ones out there for several reasons. And I have seen them played maybe twice in my life. Bottom line is that you can bet table minimum or any amount above that, and receive even money if a 6 or 8 (depends on which one you've bet on) is rolled before a 7 is. At least it's not a one-roll bet, but the house edge is 9.09%. Even worse is that if a person betting on these were to Place the 6 or 8, they would get a 7:6 payoff and cut the edge down to 1.52%! If you want to drop $5 on the Big 6, do yourself a favor and add another dollar so you can Place it.

So there it is, a rundown of the not-so-good and bad bets in the game of craps. The high payouts can be enticing, but the high edge can be a long-term killer of your bankroll. Stick to the low-edge bets (i.e. below 2%) and work with them. It's plenty fun to make all kinds of bets, but much more enjoyable to win doing so.

In the next lesson, we'll look at hedge bets in combination with the low-edge Pass Line and Place bets.

Some Things You Just Gotta Remember

I'm going to start this post off with a little story of how I ran into a dice game in a place I would have never imagined. Last Friday, we got tickets through some friends to the Sixers game against the Celtics...in a luxury suite! For my first NBA game, the accommodations are going to be very hard to top the next time. So we're at the game, and we head down to the VIP cigar bar to check it out for a while. After I get in, something grabs my attention from the corner of my eye--a craps table!

There was also a blackjack table and a hold'em table as part of "Vegas Night" at the Wachovia Center. As I inquired more about it, I found out that you start out with $500 in play chips and occasionally, they would come around and give out prizes to the people with the most chips at that time. So, for about 20 minutes, I shot craps at the Wachovia Center. Not bad.

To take this story and fit it into the lessons of this blog, I've decided that this post should remind us of a few things we all need to know at the casino craps game:

• There are no "do-overs", where the casino will let you roll a seven-out again. Yeah, the dealer at the play craps game let that go down a couple times...but not when the money is real. When you lose your bets, you don't get 'em back.
• You trade your money in for chips at the table, and the house has a few reasons for doing this. The one big one you can't lose sight of is that one chip can mean $5 of your money, $25, $100, and so on. Remember that those chips are worth good money, so be disciplined with what you do with them.
• Establish win limits and loss limits before you get to the casino. To be honest with you, win limits aren't quite as important if you don't get to play very often--just make sure you don't lose much of your own money if you are up. The loss limit, in my eyes, is the most important thing to adhere to. If you cash in $200 and are willing to risk losing it all, then play away. But if you were to cash in that same $200 and could only afford to lose $100 of it, you better stop when you lose that $100...because that second $100 is just as easy to lose.
• Craps is a game of fluctuations and streaks. Your bankroll will likely go up and down (hopefully mostly up) throughout a typical session, and things can happen suddenly. Don't fall for the Gambler's Fallacy of "I've lost 6 in a row...I couldn't possibly lose again." Don't be afraid to walk away with your last few chips or even your winnings if things are tanking out.
  
• Don't "wing it" and play by superstition or completely by hunches. Know the good bets at the table, and stay away from the bad. We've already looked at the best bets of the game, and a future post will show why most of the rest are crappy.
• Craps "systems" or ways of betting will not give you an advantage over the house. There are no bets or combination of bets in the game that will give you an edge in your favor. But sticking to a solid method of playing and betting that takes advantage of the good bets should help you win when luck is on your side, and hopefully reduce the amount you will lose if its not. We'll look at some typical systems in a later post too.
• Absolutely, positively, do not base the outcome of the next roll on previous results. Each roll of the dice has the same set of probabilities every single time. (Make sure you are very familiar with dice properties and those probabilities...they are what this game are based on.)
• Finally, know that the odds, probabilities, and house edge calculations we talk about are "long range" figures...meaning that you may be a higher or lower proportion of specific numbers being rolled in the short term. The short term might consist of the current shooter's roll or the entire hour or two you spend at the table each session.

Most importantly...HAVE FUN WHILE YOU HAVE THE CHANCE. And always relish the wins, and take the losses in stride.

Playing the Numbers

Well, if you read the last post about the Odds bet, you may be a bit buried by the math behind it. But there is no doubt that understanding why it is such a good bet is important...because even an advantage-free bet still has its limitations. This post is about the Place bets, which are probably the next popular bets in the craps game behind the Line/Odds bets. On the table diagram below, look at the area towards the top that shows the large numbers 4, 6, six, 8, nine, & 10. That is the area where Place bets are put.

Before we get into how to physically make the bet at the table, let's look at why placing a number can be a good bet or a bad bet. You may ask, "A place bet can be good OR bad?". Well, it all depends on the number you are betting on. I've condensed the math on these bets into the info below so you can see the house advantage on the Place bets, depending on which number:

• Place 6 or 8: Odds of winning bet are 5:6, winning bet paid 7:6; house edge = 1.52%
• Place 5 or 9: Odds of winning bet are 2:3, winning bet paid 7:5; house edge = 4.00%
• Place 4 or 10: Odds of winning bet are 1:2, winning bet paid 9:5; house edge = 6.67%

Now you can see the wide range of advantage that the house has on these bets, from bearable with the 6 or 8, to bad with the 4 or 10. So the math says that making a 6 and/or 8 Place bet is pretty much as good as playing the Pass line. Now we're looking at several bets available to the savvy craps player with relatively low house edges.

OK, so you're at the table in the casino and you want to make a Place bet...what do you do? Unlike betting on the Pass line or taking Odds, the dealer must book your Place bet. The most common way to do so is put your money in the area labeled "COME" on the layout and state what you want, like "Place the 6 for $12". It is important that you, as the player, make sure that your money is taken by the dealer and put in the correct area on the layout. Sure, there's cameras and pit bosses to make sure things run correctly, but when it comes to my money, I'm going to be on top of it. You should also remember that if you have Place bets down during a come out roll, they are "off"...meaning that the bet can't win you any money if the number is rolled, but it won't lose if the 7 is rolled. Of course, if you want, you can ask the dealers to turn your Place bets "on" and they will function as if it wasn't a come out roll.

Just like with the Odds bets, there are general rules of thumb that go with the amounts you must put down for the Place bets. Look back at the three bullet points above that talk about the different numbers you can place and their payouts. Because the 6 & 8 get paid at a 7:6 rate, each Place bet on those numbers must be made in multiples of $6. More than likely, a dealer won't book a bet that isn't right, but if he does, you won't get paid as much as you should. Place bets on 5 & 9 are paid 7:5, and Place bets on 4 & 10 are paid 9:5...so those bets need to be in multiples of $5. Recap:

• Place 6 or 8: winning bet paid 7:6, make bet a multiple of $6
• Place 5 or 9: winning bet paid 7:5, make bet a multiple of $5
• Place 4 or 10: winning bet paid 9:5, make bet a multiple of $5
  

Odds Are...It's a Good Bet

The Odds bet. Known as the only bet in the casino that has no house edge on it whatsoever. Don't know about you, but that sounds like it's about as good as it gets (except for card counting in Blackjack, cheating, or being a shark in poker). So, what does it mean for a bet to have no house advantage? Simply stated, the Odds bet is paid at the same rate as that of you losing the bet. For example, the odds of you losing this bet when the point is 9 are 3:2 (remember--there's 6 ways to lose and 4 ways to win), so the payoff is 3:2. If you made a $10 Odds bet in this case, you'd win $15 if the point is made.

NOTE: THE ODDS BET HAVING NO HOUSE EDGE DOESN'T CHANGE THE CHANCES OF YOU WINNING THE BET, IT JUST PAYS YOU ACCORDING TO YOUR RISK.

OK, sounds good...but what does this mean in the course of the craps game, right? Well, the first thing you need to remember is that you can't make the Odds bet without having a line bet (Pass or Don't Pass--we'll look at the Pass Line for now). Once a point has been established by the shooter, you have the option to make an Odds bet. On the same lines, you can pick up your Odds bet before any roll or change the amount of it.

Another interesting point about this bet is that the maximum amount you can bet like this varies according to how many "times" odds the casino allows. Of course, this amount is displayed at the table...and often advertised if they are player-friendly. You can commonly find 3x, 5x, and even 10x odds rules, and I've even seen up to 100x times odds allowed in a small Vegas joint. So if the casino allows 10x odds, that means with a $10 Pass Line bet you can put up to $100 behind the line in Odds. Not bad, for an advantage-free bet.

Alright...now that the basic understanding of the Odds bet is out in the open, we need to look at it as a combination bet with the Pass Line bet. There are three rules of thumb to use to remember how to make the Odds bet relative to what the point is. We'll look at them below, using a $10 odds bet as an example:

• Point of 6 or 8: bet a multiple of 5 (payoff is 6:5)...$10 pays $12.
• Point of 5 or 9: bet an even amount (payoff is 3:2)...$10 pays $15.
• Point of 4 or 10: bet any amount (payoff is 2:1)...$10 pays $20.

Since you cannot have an Odds bet without a Line bet, we need to measure its effectiveness in combination. The table below takes the three different sets of point numbers, and looks at the house edge on the total bet as the multiple of odds are increased. Remember that these figures deal with the probabilities of the Pass Line and Odds bets after the point has been established, so the player's advantage from the come out naturals are not factored in.


That complex math (which has actually been simplified down in that table) can be boiled down into a few observations:

1. As the amount of odds is increased, the house edge is diluted gradually towards zero.
2. In the column labeled "Step Change", you can see that the house edge is cut in half from a Pass Line bet with no Odds to the addition of single (1x) Odds. Going from single to double Odds, there is only an additional one-third cut in the house edge. So this is a good example of the Law of Diminishing Returns, where each increase in the Odds bet brings less of a reduction in the house edge than the increment below.
3. Finally, it doesn't matter what the point is, each increment of Odds bet made decreases the house edge by the same amount...whether you look at it cumulatively ("Change From 0x" column) or incrementally ("Step Change" column).

In a later post, we can look at how this affects betting strategy. For now, we have the low down on "the best bet in the house".

Putting it on the Line

We left the last post talking about how a dice hand goes down. What I failed to mention was that during the course of a shooter's roll, you have a multitude of choices on what to bet. This time, we're going to look at two of the most fundamental bets in the game of craps--the Pass and Don't Pass Bets. Check out the craps table diagram below to see where these bets are made:

Let's start with the Pass Line. If you put a $5 chip on this area in front of you, you are betting with the shooter. In the previous post, I said that there are two basic things that can happen as the shooter comes out. If he rolls a natural, the Line bet is resolved immediately...meaning:

• 7 or 11 is rolled-WINNER. You are paid even money ($5 in this case) on your bet.
• 2, 3, or 12 is rolled (craps numbers)-LOSER. Your bet is taken by the house.

OK, so we know what happens if a natural is rolled on the come out...but that is only supposed to happen 1/3 of the time (remember the Rule of Thirds). But for 24 of the possible 36 combinations of the dice, a point will be established. A point number will only be 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10. Once the point is established, you will win the Pass Line bet only if the point number is rolled again before a 7 is rolled.

Let's look at some math then. It is often said that the Pass Line (and Don't Pass) bet is one of the best bets in the casino. Why? Check this out...we'll start by figuring out what the odds of making the point are, which depends on what the point actually is. This can be figured out by simply taking the number of ways to roll a 7, and dividing that by the number of ways to make the point number. You can see this below:

• If the point is 6 or 8, the odds are 5:6.
• If the point is 5 or 9, the odds are 4:6 (or 2:3).
• If the point is 4 or 10, the odds are 3:6 (or 1:2).

Obviously, the "easiest" points to make are 6 & 8, and the hardest are 4 & 10. But I remember saying that this was one of the best bets to make in the whole casino, and those odds above say that it's 2:1 against you to win if your point is a 4? Well, you've got to take into account that by betting on the Pass Line, you get the benefits on winning on 7 & 11 on the come out roll. Also, you have to realize that there is a lesser chance of a 4 being the point than the 8 would be. And you have a better chance of winning with a point of 8, than with a point of 4. So, if we use math to figure out the odds of winning or losing on a natural, the odds of what the point could be, and furthermore, what the odds of winning with that point will be; the cumulative house edge for the Pass Line bet is:

1.42% (not too bad)

To put it in simple terms, the Don't Pass bet is the opposite of the Pass Line bet. If your money is there, you are pretty much betting against the shooter. You lose your bet on a natural 7 & 11 on the come out roll, and win with the 2 & 3 naturals. Well, let's figure out what happened with the 12...you push if that is rolled on the come out. That, my friends, is the big difference between the Pass and Don't Pass bets. Think about it, if the Pass Line bet carries a 1.42% advantage and the Don't Pass is exactly the opposite, we'd have a 1.42% advantage over the house. But the rules make a 12 on the come out roll a push for the Don't Pass bet, and that little change makes just enough difference.

Briefly, if your Don't Pass bet travels to a point, you can say that the odds are in your favor to win. Since the chances of the 7 being rolled before the point number is always greater, you are at an advantage. But the downfall is getting past the 7 & 11 on the come out. All that being said, the house advantage on the Don't Pass bet is only:

1.36%

"New Shooter...Coming Out"

The game of craps is based on separate "hands", just as games like blackjack and poker. Except instead of hands of cards, there are hands of dice. A hand (or turn) begins when the shooter (player rolling the dice) throws the dice for the first time. At this point, there are only two basic things that can happen:

1. A natural is rolled...2, 3, 7, 11, or 12. This is the first time we see a Rule of Thirds. (We'll get to that whole thing in a minute.)
2. A point number is rolled...4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10.

Simple enough, right? The shooter gets up there, chucks the dice down the table, and only two things can happen. Well, that's just the beginning of it all. This is a great time to look at what it means in terms of the course of the craps game. The first roll of the shooter is called the come out roll, and it signifies the start of things. If a natural is rolled (Situation #1), then bets are resolved and the shooter comes out again--because no point was established. Only when a point number is rolled that the point "travels" and the shooter continues to roll until two things happen:

1. The shooter rolls the point number again--it is said that the shooter hit the point. (For instance, if the point was 6...the shooter needs to hit the 6 again.) OR...
2. The shooter rolls a 7--it is said that the shooter sevened out. Then, the hand is over and the dice go to the next person around the table.

Each of those two outcomes of the point can be good or bad, relative to how you as a player is betting. That discussion will be the subject of several more posts because there is a lot more to it. But you can simply say that if you are betting with the shooter, hitting the point is good; but if you are betting against the shooter, you want a seven-out.

Right now is a good time to get back to that Rule of Thirds deal. If we go back a post, we talked about how there are 36 possible combinations of the dice. Add up how many possible ways to throw a natural (2, 3, 7, 11, or 12)...got it? There's 12. And those naturals account for 1/3 of all possible outcomes. Look even deeper into the naturals themselves and count how many possible outcomes there are of the craps numbers (2, 3, and 12). There's 4...and that's 1/3 of all the naturals. Just some interesting observations there--but we'll use them later.

Next time--How to Bet the Line

Tools of the Trade

To many, this is beginner's information. But I have to say that sometimes the action at the craps table and the complexity of betting and the game can obscure two little details: the dice. The craps player has two basic tools of the trade; money (chips in the casino) & dice. Without either, there's no game. Discussion about money and betting can come later, but first, you've gotta understand what the bones have to say!

For the most part, craps is the only game in the casino that uses these translucent cubes (sic bo being another, but in an entirely different fashion). Craps is quite a unique game in that there is a fixed number of outcomes for each and every roll of the dice...and the proportion of those outcomes are fixed too. So that is why understanding the following concepts is important to makin' some bank on the felt:

• There are 36 combinations of the dice (6 sides x 6 sides).
• The range of numbers that can be rolled is 2 through 12.
• The most probable number that can be rolled is 7, and there are six ways to roll it.

OK, let's stop right there for a minute. Six ways to roll a 7 with the dice?!? That means out of 36 different combinations, 1/6 of them are sevens. So, the other eleven numbers (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, & 12) account for the other 30 outcomes. That is the power of the 7...the most dominant number of them all. And for those that have shot craps at all, you understand exactly what that means. For those that have an idea now, but not quite feel the importance--that will come soon in a future post. Heck, the 7 deserves it's own post! On with the show:

• Besides the number 7, all other outcomes of the dice are member of a "pair group".

Alright, I'm going to step aside right now from that list and talk about these "pair groups". I don't think I can coin the phrase, but I'm going to knock it off with the little quote marks around it. The diagram below shows all of the possible outcomes of the dice in somewhat of a distribution graph. I don't like big terms, and I don't intend to use them much at all in this blog. But the graph shows us that the 7, which is in the middle, has the most outcomes. From there, the graph fans outward to show that there are...

• 5 ways to throw a 6 & 8, each.
• 4 ways to throw a 5 & 9, each.
• 3 ways to throw a 4 & 10, each.
• 2 ways to throw a 3 & 11, each.
• 1 way to throw a 2 & 12, each.

That's some basic knowledge on pretty much the only constant in the game of craps--the dice and their probabilities. I should take the time to make a quick note that there is a school of thought out there that goes by several names, but most notably Dice Influencing. There's a lot more fundamental information to be had before we get into that. Gotta crawl before you walk.

Before you get away though, consider a few more simple, but critical, pieces of information that surround the dice:

• The number on the bottom side of the die + the number on the top side of the die ALWAYS = 7.
• Each even number outcome has 1 combination made up of a pair (a.k.a. hardway); obviously the only way to roll a 2 or 12 is by a pair.

Next time...the anatomy of a dice hand.

What's It All About?

Knowledge. Ever have a fascination with rolling dice, whether playing a board game or shooting them with friends? Or have you been to the casino, but intimidated by the action at the dice table? This blog is going to start from the top by looking at the cubes, the table, the bets, and progress all the way to strategy, money management, and perhaps...dice influencing. So stay tuned to the posts, pictures, and numbers--in no time, you too can be a seasoned craps veteran. And, of course, feedback is always wanted...let me know what you like, don't like, or even what you want to know about next.

As always, good luck!