2011 - Quick Thoughts

2011 has been a very exciting year for craps in our household.  Our experience continues to grow, the Mrs.' shooting is top notch, and we haven't been thrown out of any casinos yet :)

A good friend has partnered with me to use the Hot Hand Craps concept and a fair amount of the blog's content to develop an Amazon Kindle e-book.  It is being formatted as we speak, and should be a decent pickup for anyone curious about the game of craps, who wants to learn more about the bets and the games, as well as get a solid foundation for what advantage play is all about.

Best of luck to all of you.

A Great Book

Anybody visiting this blog probably realizes how stale the content may be, but this latest post is a pitch for an awesome, authoritative book on the subject of dice control: The Mad Professor's Crapshooting Bible by Tino Gambino (The Mad Professor).  Truly awesome from the author of numerous articles in the early 2000's...anybody willing to "invest" $20 in the AP Craps subject should pick this book up.

A Big Thanks...

...to all the loyal visitors over the last couple years. And an apology for not being current as of late, and no, the blog and website are not dead. I have been quite the busy person these days, and any time that I do find to devote to craps and blackjack is spent either practicing or playing in AC.

Best of luck to you all, and check back in the future!

Why Bet Like This?!?

In the post, My Preferred Betting Scheme, I had summarized my approach to wagering on my own AP Craps skills. For the most part, this is still how I do it. Pass Line, Odds, Place 6 &8, and Place 4 & 10 are still my core bets, and provide me with the best opportunities to consistently profit with as little exposure to loss as possible. At this point in time, my OAP is still in the 4.0 neighborhood on a consistent basis, so what does this mean for me?

Since that original post, my thinking towards the Odds bet has shaped up. Yes, I have always held it to be a powerful wager, for both random players and APs. And yes, it is still an "accessory" to the associated line bet. But the Pass Line wager is a prerequisite to shooting the dice, so the mental separation of Pass Line and Odds bets is necessary. It should be apparent that the line bet is mathematically favorable during the come-out roll for the do-side player, but does a 180 once the point is established. The AP puts this factor behind him/her, and moves on to capitalizing on the Odds bet.

I've mentioned before that my betting approach is proportional, but yet diversified. By proportional, I mean that the total amount of my action is divvied up among the bets roughly according to the edges I've worked towards. And by diversified, I mildly spread my action to cover 2 different numbers (1 being the point number). Follow me as we walk through my mind during my time to shoot the dice (honestly, it's not that scary of a place):

AT THE COME-OUT:

Honestly, I bet table minimum during the come-out roll 90% of the time, with that 10% coming in the latter portion of sessions where I am dialed in and feeling very confident in hitting a natural 7 or two. My reasoning for low-rolling at table minimum is that the Pass Line bet, while very advantageous for that initial roll, becomes a liability once the point number has been established. In fact, a "perfect" on-axis roller (OAP 1) can't flip the severe disadvantage...see page 106 of my electronic book for the exact numbers.

With this in mind, I find it important to save my chips for more advantageous wagers during the point cycle. Operating at about OAP 4, my potential edge on the Pass Line bet is approximately 40%. My personal goal is to work that OAP down to 3...at that point, my expectation would be over 55%!

POINT OF 6/8

Once the point number is established as either 6 or 8, my decision is very simple: take Odds and Place the opposite 6 or 8, whichever is not the point number. Both of these wagers are made at the same level. Why? At OAP 4, the approximate potential edge on the Odds bet is 8% and the Place bet is 7%. Again, when I am able to work the OAP down to 3, I should be looking at advantages of 10.67% and 9.65%, respectively.

POINT OF 5/9

With a point of 5 or 9, I must make a decision due to my conservative betting style (which I believe helps a little bit with covering my AP intentions). That decision is which Place bet to make with the Odds: 6 or 8? These days, I am looking at a 5% edge with the Odds and 7% when Placing either the 6 or 8. At the OAP 3 level, the Odds would return 6.67% and the Place bet, 9.65%. With my current abilities in mind, I make the Odds and Place wagers at the same unit level since the Place 6 or 8 requires multiples of $6, the ratio of money bet on Place to Odds is close to the 7:5 ratio with the edges.

POINT OF 4/10

Finally, these point numbers offer bigger payouts than the other four, but at slightly smaller advantages. With the Odds bet potentially having a 6.5% edge, and the Place bet on the opposite 4 or 10 having a 5.5% edge, it can be tough to differentiate the bet levels between the two. Depending on what my unit level is (based on success at that point), my wagers on the Odds and Place are more than likely the same. If my Odds bet is at $30, than I will usually Place the opposite for $25. Interestingly enough, when I am able to get down to OAP 3, the Place bet will move to 8.33% and the Odds to 8.89%. But for now, I bet to my current skill level.

Putting a Number on the Odds Bet

The Odds bet should be any craps player's best friend, let alone the AP Craps player. Odds start out as a no-edge wager, so even a random shooter is playing on a level field with the house. I've probably led folks to the wrong conclusion in early posts on this blog and my electronic book Hot Hand Craps: Play With an Advantage by lumping the Pass Line and Odds wagers together. Yes, you can't made an Odds bet without playing the Line, but they must be separated to evaluate which wagers to be made during the point-cycle. I'll get into my current betting approach in the next post, but here are the adjusted player advantages for Odds bets on all three number pairs:

POINT 6/8 (via Flying V):
OAP 1 +32.00%
OAP 3 +10.67%
OAP 5 +6.40%
OAP 7 +4.57 %
OAP 9 +3.56%

POINT 5/9 (via Flying V or Mini V):
OAP 1 +20.00%
OAP 3 +6.67%
OAP 5 +4.00%
OAP 7 +2.86%
OAP 9 +2.22%

POINT 4/10 (via Mini V):
OAP 1 +25.00%
OAP 3 +8.33%
OAP 5 +5.00%
OAP 7 +3.57%
OAP 9 +2.78%

You Can't Get Far Without Executing

EXECUTION. It is the essence of the on-axis throw critical to the success of AP Craps. Notwithstanding “betting off of” another AP, you don’t gain an edge over the house in this game without being able to exert some level of consistent physical command over the dice. As a refresher, I’ve got a couple links to some old posts below regarding how to find your dice-throwing technique:

Technique is in the Hand of the Diceholder

Makin' the Dice Dance

In order to avoid a post that is nothing but recycled material, I want to add a few more points about translating a successful throw from the practice table to the live table. Especially via the internet, it is nearly impossible (and pretty much futile) to dictate a specific throwing technique that will universally work for each prospective AP. It’s like a golf swing or a baseball swing in that variations of a general technique are needed to fit individual anatomies.

Be comfortable when you are up to throw. Stressed-out muscles can often alter your technique, especially if you are relaxed in your practice sessions. A different technique when money is on the line just might take your potential advantage and flush it down the drain. Deep breathing and/or a conscious effort to slow the heart rate helps. Of course, so can having a drink or two…yes, you heard me say something that many “pros” strongly advocate against. But if you can handle some alcohol, slow consumption of beer or cocktails could be your muscles’ friend!

Limit those marathon sessions to shorter periods of time. Being on your feet for hours at a time has an affect on your performance. Tired and sore leg muscles and joints can ripple upwards, resulting in poor performance from the upper body. Try to have your sessions last for no more than 45 minutes to 1 hour, depending on how conditioned your body is. And, of course, sit down in between sessions and stay hydrated and fed. Fatigue is not the AP’s friend.

Stay away from overcrowded tables. Nobody likes being sandwiched when throwing the dice, especially someone who is looking for precision. Crowded tables typically bring about a couple other negative side effects: longer times between your turns to shoot, and much more chip interference in your shooting lane. Always be prepared with “target practice” so your shots can be aimed away from chips down on the other end, but why take the chance when emptier tables have less interference?

Practice hard, play smart, and stay strong. Play with an advantage!

Staying in the Present

The Hot Hand Craps Advantage-Play approach offers the skilled player a simplified opportunity to gain an edge over the casino with the following three steps:

1) Develop a consistent on-axis throwing ability applicable in the casino.
2) Determine OAP and tailor use of sets and betting strategies to your skill level.
3) EXECUTE!!!

The topic of this post is to understand the difference between expectation and reality in regard to how your skill may translate to an individual craps session. First, let’s expand the OAP (On-Axis Proportion) concept. This measurable takes a player’s number of confirmed successful on-axis rolls and divides it over the total number of throws (which can be purely casino play, or a combination of casino and practice play ONLY if the practice table has the necessary elements such as the pyramid rubber walls). Pretty straightforward, right?

Simplicity can be a strength, and it is in this case. Consistency is key in having a reliable OAP assessment…so a low, but consistent OAP is more of an asset that an inconsistent high OAP.

SIDE NOTE: A “high OAP” means that a player has a higher proportion of on-axis rolls to total rolls. This is counterintuitive since OAP 3 is “higher” than OAP 5 for this reason.

OAP can often be a moving target in regard to how a player may improve or regress over a period of time. Then again, it may not if the skill plateaus to a constant level/range. And this is not necessarily a bad thing if the “plateaued” OAP is in a range that can earn you an advantage in most or all scenarios. Because I am constantly working on my skill and applying it in the casinos, I use the “Rolling OAP” as my current measurement.


THE ROLLING OAP

I like to keep an up-to-date OAP measurement based on my last 10 sessions or so. These sessions consist of both in-casino trips and in-house practice runs. My practice runs are usually hour-long trials where I net 80-100 rolls. In a good session at the casino, it’s hard to ballpark how many rolls since they vary depending on conditions. But 10 sessions of either or a combination works for me.

Using the latest 10 allows for a change in skill in the short term, and this amount of trials usually fits in a window of a month, or less sometimes. I keep track of each session’s results and ultimately get them into an Excel spreadsheet for longevity sake. But knowing what my current OAP is before heading out for a live session helps me formulate my betting attack, which depends on where the money can be made based on the potential player advantage for my core bets.

Another thing to think about: notwithstanding ambidextrous players, many prefer to shoot from one side of the table over the other. So OAP will likely be different from a stick right (SR) position than the stick left (SL) position. Be sure to evaluate OAP separately from each side so as not to inflate or shrink the metric by blending them together.


HOTHANDCRAPS.COM NOTES

The Hot Hand Craps: Play With an Advantage .PDF book is available on the website. Work on a second book will begin in due time with a deeper look into AP Craps topics and how to round out your game.

Good luck out there!!!

Refinement via Minimalism

The physical aspect of successful AP Craps play often dominates many players' efforts and aspirations to gain an edge over the house. But as I have stated in numerous posts in the past, the physical aspect should only be half of your game. The mental game is just as important...what are the dice "saying" to you?...what should you be betting on?...and in what proportion?

Regardless of how you measure your AP Craps skill (OAP, SRR, results from thousands of rolls per set, etc.), it is very important to take the time necessary to evaluate how this skill affects the house's edge on a variety of bets. Depending on your betting philosophy, the breadth of your bet wheelhouse may vary. For myself, I look to gain an edge with Odds and Place bets, but the Field can prove advantageous in certain situations. Others may develop ample skill to work Hardways and Horn components into their game, but I am a simplistic bettor. Here's how:

Once into the point-cycle phase (which constitutes a majority of a typical successful dice hand), I utilize a minimalistic approach. By minimalistic, I mean 2 or 3 core wagers. Yes, 2 or 3. Some folks may get the wrong idea about AP Craps, in that your intent is to roll numbers upon numbers from 2 to 12 and back down the line again. Well, I hate to say that it don't really work that way. Effective refined advantage play is not only about avoiding the 7 during the point-cycle, but refining your target numbers for the given set, determined by the situation (namely your point number).

Refining your targets is key to minimzing your outlay of wagers in terms of how thinly you may be spread. Remember, the more numbers you are betting on, the more hits it generally takes to flip a profit on a given roll. Concentrating your action on a couple or 3 bets reduces the number of winners needed to get you into the black, generally speaking. In fact, you could take the same amount that would be spread on the inside, outside, or all the way across box numbers and concentrate it on your Odds and another Place bet or two.

But it's all about what percent edge you are looking at for each of those bets. Taking the following example edges and associated bets where the point number has been established as 5 for a particular set with your skill level...

ODDS 5: 10%
PLACE 4: -3%
PLACE 6: 5%
PLACE 8: 5%
PLACE 9: 2%
PLACE 10: -3%

...it would appear that the money to be made is in nailing that 5 right then and there. But short-run variance can produce unpredictable things. So play the percentages to spread your action MINIMALLY where the highest edges lie. The Odds 5 wager has twice as much potential as do the Place 6 & 8 wagers, which are very solid at 5%. Placing the 9 has less potential for profit, and would put your past that over-extension threshhold (in my opinion). As a general rule of thumb here, your Odds bet would be the same amount as the Place 6 & 8 bets combined. Granted, they probably won't be in these exact proportions due to the $6 increments required for the Place bets, but you should get the idea.

I fear that I've rambled a bit too much, but I hope that these, and other, concepts that constitute the mental game CARRY AS MUCH IMPORTANCE AS the ability to influence the dice consistently. When at the casino, knowing your potential edges for each situation is a must. Take the time to study the dice, understand your skill, and know how to bet.


As far as the Hot Hand Craps website is concerned, I must apologize for my turtle-paced work on enriching its content. Between the "real world" and putting in mucho practice on the craps table upstairs, my work on the second book and video instruction is in a holding pattern. Thanks for your patience.

Random Thoughts On, Well, Randomness

Fighting the "random" monster at the craps table is what AP Craps play is all about. The basics are simple enough in theory: restrict the range of outcomes that the dice may produce, bet to the "new" restricted probabilities, and let the math take over in the long run. The physical aspect is executing a consistent ratio of controlled on-axis throws. But in the casino, the deck is stacked against you. Three key reasons why: diamond rubber on the walls, padding under the surface, and obstructions on the layout.

First and most effective, the house puts this "randomizing" material on the walls to take careening dice and throw them off erratically. In my opinion, there is no real way to mimic the interaction between the dice and this surface at home without at least one piece of this stuff. It's not cheap, but you can find quality materials at sites like discountcasinogear.com (I plug them from time to time because I have had great experiences with them for items like the wall sections -- 11"x4' @$44 -- dice, and chips).

But I digress...the dice are more than likely to lose any player-given control over their rotation when they strike this surface. I say "more than likely" instead of an absolute like "always" because I have noticed some interesting things with quite a bit of practice on the home table lately (I consider myself fortunate to have made time, freed up some resources, and worked on the skills to create the great beginnings for a 12' table on the third floor). It is essential for the dice to strike the rear wall (if they even make it there...which is a whole other discussion on casino tolerance) with their last gasp of momentum. Preferably they will hit at the base, where it is just a bevel that will accept a flush on-axis die without much negative reflex.

The bigger issue is when a die hits the pyramid area that is constructed with 45 degree angles up, down, left, or right. It is this area that often delivers a knock-out blow to an on-axis roll attempt. But not always. In fact, some wall hits can result in either a knock-down or spin reflex. The knock-down typically comes about when the die hits the underside of the pyramid and further deadens it. Spin shots are a little more curious, and are actually the impetus for my motivation to post after a long evening.

Spin, in this context, is put on the die by the pyramid and is not necessarily a bad thing when an on-axis approach is maintained until impact. The spin occurs when the fading die strikes the side of the pyramid...the die no longer rotates around the desired rotational axis, but in such a way where the top number stays on top as the new spin takes place. This can often happen without detriment to the on-axis intent. Yes, this may make me sound like a total fool...but it is an observation that I have made on quite a few occasions lately. The home environment affords me greater concentration in following the dice from my hand to their resting place (man, that sounds pretty serious!). Wish I could demonstrate it, but I may be able to some day in the near future with video on this blog or the website. Either way, try to be on the lookout for these interesting aspects of craps physics.


The above picture shows the 1/4" underlayment of Volara foam I used to soften the surface of my home table. I believe it is a realistic compromise of the forgiving hard surfaces of the good ol' days and the more modern craps table feels. It should also help the rather expensive layout wear much better than if it were right on top of plywood. This does not mimic the extreme bounciness employed by some casinos (e.g. Trump Taj Mahal and Borgata in AC) as I have no interest in playing at those locations...

...because an overly bouncy table is more apt to "add" too much to the roll of the dice. By adding to the roll, I mean create a springboard effect that does not help reduce momentum going into the wall. For the reasons noted in the wall surface discussion, too much juice coming in is a bad thing. As a rule of thumb, harder tables accept a higher-arcing toss better, which allows for a stop-n-drop with little or no movement from the dice once they hit the table. These tables are an AP's friend, but the slightly-padded versions don't have to be your enemy.


Finally, obstructions on the table (CHIPS) are sometimes a necessary evil in the craps game. The easiest way to avoid this is to seek empty or near-empty tables...which is always a plus for those playing with an edge over the house: put the dice in your hands more often, and the numbers will take care of themselves quicker. But playing with other folks at the table usually means their bets will be in the way of your toss.

For a player who puts practice time in, at least half of that time should be spent with wagers on the opposite end of the layout. A couple Pass Line with Odds wagers is the norm, as are Place bets, and perhaps a Come and Field bet. The AP who spends some time on semi-full tables must be proficient in target shooting. I've always advocated being able to aim at and nail a 6" or so diameter circle with proficiency. However, this circle may need to be in a different location per table, per hand, or even per throw.

Somebody on the end going "off and on" with Come bets may require you to target the DC box. A superstitious Field player will likely require you to stay down the Come box alley. And the standard $64 across Place bettor keeps the Place bet alley out of bounds more often than not. Practice with different combinations of other player's chip locations and your experiences in the casino should benefit greatly.

Good Luck!!!

Back to Practice

Sorry I don't have a whole lot of craps insight for you folks these days, as things have been very busy with the holidays and house renovations. However, we've had a little time here and there to get the craps table in a crude, but practicable state! A small victory for the Hot Hand Craps team, but a decent accomplishment so far. Check out some progress pics:



The diamond walls are in, giving the rear walls the necessary surface to replicate what the casinos throw at ya. The layout is a full 12' size, which is underlain by 1/4" Volara, a dense foam material that will help the layout last a lot longer as well as give more of a challenge due to the bounce. Instead of a rigged up practice station at the old place, I've got a full-blown 12' table...but there is still quite a bit of work to do on it before the details are done.

What You May Read...

…is not always necessarily true.

On the Craps Pit message board recently, a couple members called into question some figures I posted regarding the advantage a player could gain on some Place bets with an OAP of 5 (consistent 20% on-axis proportion). The thought of gaining an edge by only throwing the dice on-axis 20% of the time was apparently ridiculous, but I tend to disagree...after all, I have to defend my numbers. Instead, it was suggested that the baseline percentage everything should be measured against is (drum roll, please): 44.4%. Huh?!?

This number left me scratching my head and pleading the author to explain where this number came from. Another generous member stated that it is the result of dividing 16 by 36. Ah ha! Thanks to my handy calculator, I can absolutely confirm that 16/36 is, in fact, 44.4%. But is it accurate to say that any percentage of on-axis throws to all throws below 44.4% is nothing more than random??? That, my friends, is the question that I am going to answer.


THE IMPORTANCE OF THESE NUMBERS

…does not come when you divide them, in my opinion. We need to look at why “16” and “36” are important, if they aren’t already glaring at you. First, “16” is the number of outcomes possible when the dice are restricted to rotation around only one axis (an on-axis roll). Second, “36” is the total number of outcomes that the dice can produce. Simply dividing the one by the other, and using the result as a benchmark for success is completely misleading. Think about this: if you take the 16 outcomes for each of the 6 axis arrangements (pre-sets), and multiplied them together, you end up with 96 combinations! This is way more than the 36 shown in the typical outcome “pyramid”. Something just doesn’t add up here.


A LOGIC EXPERIMENT

The array of 16 outcomes for a given pre-set is not exclusive to that particular one. Let’s make an example out of the Hard 8, an outcome where there is one, and only one, way to roll it: with a 4 on one die and a 4 on the other. But if you take the dice and fidget with them, you realize that the Hard 8 exists in THREE different pre-sets’ possible outcome lists. A 1-6 / 1-6 can be on the rotational axis, a 1-6 / 2-5 can be there too, and so can the 2-5 / 2-5. Therefore, the Hard 8 is not exclusive to one pre-set…and this applies to every single combination that the dice can give you.

What does this non-exclusivity mean for the AP Craps player? Well, if you had set the dice on the Flying V (a.k.a. 3V set) with the 1-6 on one die’s rotational axis, and the 2-5 on the other, the Hard 8 is one of the 16 possible outcomes from a successful on-axis throw. But just because the Hard 8 appears does not make the throw on-axis. (Confucius couldn’t have said that any better.) This is because the Hard 8 is possible with three different pre-sets, one of which was your choice for that roll: the Flying V. In the Hot Hand Craps world, the sole measure of a throw being on-axis is whether the dice stay on that prescribed axis from start to finish…not what number comes out of it. Now you can see why this is the only way to measure it: the numbers on top can show up in multiple sets.


OAP IS NOT A MATH TRICK

So, to simply say that a successful AP Craps player must keep the dice on-axis at least 44.4% of the time does not coincide with my approach to gaining an edge in this game. Hey, a player who has an OAP 2.25 (that’s 44.4% of the time on-axis) is VERY successful, so I do have to say that. But the statement that anything below that percentage is just random is extremely out of context.

In addition, the OAP measurement is unique because it is the purest measurement of on-axis throwing proficiency. The observations needed to determine it are either YES, the throw stayed on-axis or NO, it did not. It does not look at what numbers are on top of the dice since that can be misleading, as we have just shown. You’re either on, or you’re off. And knowing your skill level lets you understand what edge you can gain with a particular wager, with a particular pre-set, in a particular phase of the game. The simplicity is mind-blowing, but yet so profound.

good luck!!!

The Next Best Thing

After a recent move into our three story row house, I decided to take the plunge and build a 12' casino-style craps table in the third floor "Penthouse". For a guy with plenty of other projects around a 100+ year house, this is definitely a work in progress. My web page www.hothandcraps.com is following its construction, but I thought I would touch on the advantages of having a full size craps table at home.


There is no better experience than throwing dice in the casino, on their turf, in that environment. That being said, practicing solely in the casino can be costly. Prior to this project, my practice consisted of using an existing table to hold my surface and makeshift wall. It's time to take my practice to another level with the 12 footer. Even though construction materials, a casino-quality layout, and other accoutrement like the pricey diamond wall segments are not cheap, this is a necessary move to further work on my AP Craps skills.

As I've harped on over and over in this blog, the physical half of AP Craps consists of several elements. The landing and interaction with the wall are the pieces that truly need a casino-esque facility to practice on. The layout and more diamond wall segments are on order, and construction is under way.

Good Luck!!!

Workin' on a Website

The HOT HAND CRAPS blog has been a forum for me to share my thoughts on this wonderful game of craps for a while now. As any regular viewer has probably noticed over the last several months, there really hasn't been any new information posted. This is due to several reasons, mostly pertaining to the busy life I have but also because I have been working on developing a craps book that starts with the basics and flows on through to a solid introduction of the Advantage-Play Craps perspective that I use.

Well, my venture into authorship is alive and well but my busy mind never rests. I've got enough material to fill another volume; material that takes an advanced look into AP Craps. But the first book needs to hit the printer and get on the market first. And the subject of this post, a website, is yet another exciting project that I am starting on...tonight!

HotHandCraps.com

HotHandCraps.com is going to be the portal into the Hot Hand Craps world of printed media, e-resources, and eventually instructional DVDs. It's all part of my lofty dream, but shares time with a day job and life in a new (over 100 year old, actually) house! Please be patient and stop by the website to see the progress. I see it starting out being propped up by subject material posted here and evolving into a way to sample the goods I just mentioned.

Better get to work...

Good luck out there!!!

Been A While

Months to be exact. No new info has been posted since April, but I am happy to say that my work in creating a book may not be for naught...talks are proceeding to see something come to life.

On-Axis is the Key

In the last post, we looked at the relationship of Pro-7 dice sets and Anti-7 sets. With twice as many ways to roll the Anti-7 sets than the Pro-7 ones, there has to be a way to take advantage of this inherent trait, right?

Let's look at what this proportion means to the occurrence of the powerful 7: There's three combinations of the Pro-7 sets (1-1, 2-2, 3-3) with four out of sixteen ways to throw a 7. On the flip side, there's six combinations of the Anti-7 sets (1-2, 2-1, 1-3, 3-1, 2-3, 3-2) and only TWO out of sixteen ways to throw the 7. Doing some quick math, that equates to a 16.67% probability of rolling that 7...right on track with conventional methods of determining that figure (i.e. 6/36). This confirms that this point of view is a valid way of looking at the dice probabilities.

How does one manipulate the ratio of Pro-7 and Anti-7 axes to reduce (or enhance if you wish) the occurrence of the 7? I think it's safe to say that some form of influence needs to be put on the dice to do so. Looking back at the last post, what one would be looking for is a consistent rotation of only one of the dice at the conclusion of the roll. If the pre-set is to a Pro-7 axis (therefore, a pair is represented on the axis), rotation off of that axis for only one die will put it on an Anti-7 axis. If this is done consistently, and one can shift that ratio of Pro-7 to Anti-7 axis results towards more Anti-7 results, then there may be a way to reduce the percentage of 7 outcomes.

But that leaves us with a couple questions to ask:

1) If one die can be maintained on axis while the other rotates off axis consistently, how is this any less difficult than "traditional" on-axis dice control? Honestly, I don't think that is necessarily any easier, but it could be a viable alternative. In my eyes, this still requires a certain level of skilled throwing. Instead of producing reliable on-axis throws, this method would require one on- and the other off-axis. Perhaps this is somewhat of a "genetic defect" of an on-axis throw effort that does not pan out. This may work for some, but should be tracked accordingly, because...

2) Can setting the dice to a Pro-7 axis backfire to a dice controller of any level of skill? Certainly it could. If you, as a shooter, can keep the dice on axis at a level to where it is giving you an advantage, pre-setting the dice to a Pro-7 axis (this is assuming a right-side player not on the come out roll) is counter-intuitive. I see this version of DC as a backup plan where a sufficient level of on-axis throws cannot be achieved. But this concept will NOT offer a random shooter any level of advantage.

So, for me, it's all about keeping the dice on-axis. Knowing that a substantial advantage is out there with a 1 in 3 OAP (on-axis proportion), I continue to work on that form of craps AP. I feel that my game offers me at least a break-even long-run proposition at this point. But practice at home and work in the casino continues.

Is There Another Way?

After years of playing, I've been looking to gain an advantage in the great game of craps. At first, it consisted of betting systems and money management...but that alone won't turn the house's game into your pay day consistently. There's no betting scheme that can reverse the long-run inherent odds of the individual or combined bets. So that led me to seriously study the realm of dice control/influencing several years back. And in practicing, playing, and reflecting on the subject, some interesting things keep popping their heads up. Is there an alternative to on-axis throwing?

I do not wish to reverse what I have learned, practice, and implement to this day, but one cannot ignore trends that consistently become apparent. And what I am referring to is what happens when the dice do not stay on axis through the course of the roll. We all know of the pitfalls that can thwart any valiant attempt, including chips on the layout and the diamond rubber back wall...and those are just things that aren't necessarily under your control. You still have to produce a release, flight, and landing that facilitate on-axis results. And that is what I strive for on a consistent basis. Remember, a hefty advantage can be gained by keeping the dice on the prescribed axis one in three rolls.

But those off axis throws seem to have a deeper meaning. Stick with me here for a minute or two. A good throw that does not produce an on-axis result often "misses" because of a minor rotation of a die through the course of the roll. And that's all it takes to spoil the best of intentions. Of course, good throwing technique combined with one ounce of error appears to produce some reliable results. "Huh?" you may ask, but let's try to work through the logic on this idea:

First, there are 6 possible axis "sets". For on-axis controlled throws, I only use 3 of them...1 for coming out (lots of sevens, no horn) and 2 for during the course of the point (box numbers, less sevens). But to expand our view of these sets, let's look at which ones are favorable for sevens and which diminish them (you can peruse past posts for more clarity on the sets themselves if you need)...

Hardway Set (1-1 on axis) - 4 ways to make a seven
All Sevens (2-2 on axis) - 4 ways to make a seven
Straight Sixes (3-3 on axis) - 4 ways to make a seven
Flying V (1-2 on axis) - 2 ways to make a seven
Mini V (1-3 on axis) - 2 ways to make a seven
2-3V (2-3 on axis) - 2 ways to make a seven


I think we can see the pattern here...dice sets that have pairs of numbers on the axes are more conducive to sevens occuring (25% chance) than those sets without pairs on the axes (12.5% chance). That's a good observation, and to make it simpler down the line, we'll group them as Pro-7 and Anti-7 Sets. In this context, we are now concerning ourselves with what is the end result of the roll since the alternative assumption is that the dice will finish with a minor change from the pre-set axis arrangement (i.e. looking at the erroneous, or unsuccessful, throws).

Let's take the Hardways Set in the following example. 1-1 is on the axis at the beginning of the roll, but if there is a deviation of one die from this prescribed axis (i.e. it flips over another axis), you will now have either the 2 or the 3 in that die's axis when it comes to rest. No longer is it on the 1-1 axis, it is on the 1-2 or 1-3 axes. Your pre-set has gone from the Hardways Set (Pro-7) to the Flying V or Mini-V sets (Anti-7) by the time the dice stop.

For the next exercize, we'll pre-set the Flying V set, which has 1-2 on the axis. Assuming the same as above, one die will be caused to flip over another axis. We'll say that the die rotating around the 2 will come off-axis, and will rest with either the 1-1 or 1-3 in the axis. Your pre-set has gone from the Flying V (Anti-7) set to either the Mini-V (also Anti-7) or the Hardways Set (Pro-7). This isn't quite as definitive as the above example. And if you worked through these trials with the other four sets, you'll find that they share the same properties as these, depending on whether they are Pro-7 or Anti-7 to begin with.

What has tuned me into these thoughts are observations at home and in the casino. My inquiring mind wonders what kind of results are appearing in those rolls that don't stay on axis through the course of the action. Because I use a consistent throw, my "misses" generally mean that one die has gone astray. However, and I must be brutally honest here, honing in on that 1:3 or 1:4 mark of on-axis proportion rolls is a very difficult feat for me. Can there be another way to take advantage of these near misses, or is it all just random no matter what? Or is there a more efficient way to gain an advantage in this game? I hope to be able to sink my teeth into those questions here soon. Either way, I'm still practicing and playing.

A True Trifecta

I wanted to take this time to digress a bit from the prime topic of this blog: craps. Actually, I just want to put the game in perspective of my overall AP (Advantage Play) gambling repertoire...craps, blackjack, and horse handicapping (hence, the trifecta). Of course, there are pitfalls with each of these games, and I'll explain why below:

BLACKJACK (or 21). One of the most-popular non-slot games in the casino, this card game offers the player options on how they want to play their cards during the course of the hand. The most common (but not only) form of AP blackjack play is counting cards. The basic premise of counting cards combines alterations to playing strategy and betting strategy based on how favorable the remaining cards are to the player.

Challenges: AP blackjack has "caught on" for the most part with the mainstream gambler. Realistically, card counting has had a visible effect on casinos' profits for decades, but the house has generally clamped down on the rules of the game to offset more folks playing with an advantage (I am admittedly part of the problem). You can see these effects with 8-deck shoes, no mid-shoe entry rules, 6:5 payouts on natural blackjacks, shallower cuts into decks & shoes, etc. And to top that all off, casinos can ask you to leave if they think that you hold an advantage (not so in Atlantic City, but they have different ways to cut that advantage down).

How to Cope: Most of those aforementioned challenges to AP blackjack play require more discipline and a bigger bankroll. A larger bet spread is needed when more decks are used in the shoe (less money wagered without an advantage, more money with it), but more importantly, one must really play only when there is an advantage...come in with one, and leave when it's gone.


HORSE HANDICAPPING. One often equates handicapping (horses or sports) with having an advantage, but many handicappers don't take the time to do their own research...they use tip sheets or other sources. A day or evening at the races has always been a pastime of mine, but it has only been recently that I have taken the time to develop a consistent way to rate horses based on past performances. This method considers the key factors (in my eyes) of class, consistency, and current form. Simple enough, but it helps me to find winners since I rarely, if ever, rely on exotic bets to come home a winner.

Challenges: Although the house has no problems with winning bettors in this game (because it gets its cut no matter who wins), it is often the other bettors that pose an obstruction to taking home more cash. Huh? Well, the amount of money that a winning horse returns is proportional to how much money has been wagered on it. More money = less of a cut. The biggest disappointment is scouting and betting a strong entry that all the money happens to be on.

How to Cope: If there isn't a strong candidate to win any given race according to my rating, I sit it out. No clear favorite means there is no advantage from my perspective. However, I have been known to bet a quinella or exacta box where there are two clear strong entries. With respect to the popular choice watering down a return on my winning selection, I must say that I look for a horse to go off at least 2:1 odds in order to bet it. My goal, which is to pull down a 40% winning percentage (and has been achievable to date), will return nice profits when my rating system aligns with horses that return at least that much.


CRAPS. I'd say that my AP approach to craps is well documented on this blog. And the key pitfall with craps is that the only true way to gain an advantage is through the use of a physical skill to confine the dice' outcome to a pre-determined set. If that skill is inconsistent or just plain off in a gambling session, your results are pretty much no better than random...which can still carry a small disadvantage if your betting fundamentals are sound.


So, you see, a literal and figurative trifecta. But "gambling" with an advantage is not as easy as learning and application, and it often boils down to discipline, practice, and effective money management. As far as craps goes, I'm still practicing and applying...and you should be too. However, it is great to have an array of games to resort to in the casino (or track) environment...it increases the enjoyability of wagering and keeps things fresh.

Good luck to all!

Position Means A Lot

Recently, I was in one of my favorite craps joints at a table that was just opening. It didn't take long for more folks to slide on in, which pushed me to the Stick Right (SR) position on the table. Now typically, I like to get a little further away from the stickman when shooting. Interestingly enough, this position was pretty "unusual" for me that night. You would think that as close to the wall as possible would be best, but for me, not so much.

Why was that? Well, I practice from a distance that prepares me for shooting from at least two positions away from the stickman. In fact, earlier that night, I had a wonderful roll from the hook...which is about the furthest extent that I like to work from at the table. Moving the shooting range in later that evening ended up giving me an awkward feeling that left me shorting a couple throws, one of which prematurely ending a hand before it really got off the ground. Shorting from a close distance?!? It's all about feel, and that was certainly proof.

My point: practice and real-life should mimic each other. Find a comfortable range that you can operate at successfully with your physical skill, and try not to deviate from that zone until your skill and experience allow you to have almost unrestrained range. For me, however, I'm not at that point yet. But I'll keep at it. There's nothing like the game of craps and the opportunity to win.

Best of luck to you.

Patience & Diligence

As they say, "Rome was not built in a day." My post today leans heavily on philosophy and quite light on mathematics. In fact, it is probably more of an affirmation to myself as I continue to work towards attaining a consistent advantage in the game of craps. But what's stopping you from using the same motivation? So let's get after it!

Craps advantage play (AP) differs from all other casino AP in that this requires mastery of a physical skill. Blackjack calls for demanding mental prowess through memorization and repetition, which is challenging in itself. However, the game we are talking about here requires that a player pick up the dice and throw them down the table. Sure, you can be an advantage player by searching for effective dice influencers, but I believe that I am the key to my own success. What does it take to reach that level of success though? You could sum it up in the following points:

UNDERSTAND THE CONCEPT OF DICE CONTROL/INFLUENCING. Seems elementary, doesn't it? But you may be surprised just how many people don't understand what the bottom line to controlling the dice is: KEEPING THE DICE ON AXIS. The theory is really that simple. But we need to elaborate a bit...the prescribed axis should produce a constricted set of results (16 as opposed to 36), and the distribution of number outcomes will differ from the random standard as well.


LEARN AND CONSTANTLY IMPROVE THE PHYSICAL SKILL. The physical skill spoken of in the beginning is throwing the dice in such a way that they rotate around the z-axis out of your hand, through the air, and after the landing, kiss off the base of the wall, and rebound. Good grief! It's that easy, huh? Well, that is why tons of practice and a healthy dose of in-casino action is needed to make this happen. My throwing in these two very different environments has a lot of similarities, but when it's all boiled down, here's what I'm looking to do in these conditions:

In-House Practice - At home, I concentrate on producing a comfortable release that keeps the dice on axis through the air and upon impact. On top of that, I am also doing target practice. By target practice, I mean picking a 12" diameter circle and getting the dice in that area on axis consistently. I also vary where I shoot from so that several positions on the table will suit me rather than just having one. Of course, there is always the preferable location though. In summary: On axis release & landing, and target practice.

Casino Play - In the casino, it's all about using muscle memory take care of the solid release. The target practice at home relates to picking a spot on the table and judging the amount of bounce to the back wall. In order to get that light kiss off the base of the wall, I may have to make adjustments if I am unfamiliar to that particular table. But that's why I practice from different distances and positions...adjustments should be an unencumberance to my throwing. In summary: Smooth release and targeted landing (sound familiar?).


KNOW THE TRAITS OF THE PRE-SETS. As an advantage dice player, the core skill of keeping the dice on axis needs to be there before you can put it in perspective. But lets assume that you can reliably keep the dice on axis enough to produce an advantage (see some earlier posts for the math on that). It is important to understand what results can occur when the dice are kept on each of the 6 pre-set axes. Some are good to enhance the probability of the 7, while others can reduce it. Some are good for inside numbers, some better for outside numbers, and so on. I tend to think that 3 of the 6 sets are garbage, and avoid them. But you can investigate for yourself (or just peruse some earlier posts).


BET TO YOUR ADVANTAGE. Regardless of how proficient your skill is, some bets just don't stack up to the core bets. It is important to keep the discipline to hang with those core bets that give you a mathematical advantage, and thus, profit. As you've probably gathered in previous posts, I use 3 sets in my playbook: Hardways (1-1 on axes) for the come-out; Flying V (a.k.a. 3V / 1-2 on axes) for points of 5, 6, 8, & 9; and Mini V (a.k.a. 2V / 1-3 on axes) for points of 4 & 10. And this all relates back to my betting style, which capitalizes on the Pass Line with Odds and Place bets. I still avoid the center bets and field, even though the hard ways may be profitable depending on the situation.


EXECUTE AND HAVE FUN. If you can't exhibit your skill, bring home cash, and have fun at the same time, then it may not be for you. This skill does not develop overnight, and it requires constant work. But it should be another enjoyable part of life. Good luck!

Regression Can Work For You

Yes, you did read the title correctly. Coming from the person who basically said in an earlier post that regression betting does not equate to an advantage for a player. In the course of maturing as a craps advantage player (AP), perspectives can change. However, I still feel that regression betting increases volatility for the random dice game without any true increase in advantage. What I want to touch on regarding this topic has more to do with seizing opportunities with your skills in DC.

When you are shooting and betting with the advantage on your side, craps is no longer a completely negative expectation game. Simple enough. There is one thing that does not change regardless of whether the advantage lies with the player or the house: the 7 is still inevitable. What being a DC does do, however, is offer you an opportunity to turn your Pass Line and Place bets (among others) into money-makers. But if the 7 is going to come, whether it is 4 rolls into the hand or 30 rolls into the hand, a player with an advantage can look to regression to lock up a profit quickly and begin playing with house money.

For instance, Place betting the 6 & 8 when the situation and pre-set urges you can begin at a higher bet level than your base bets. In essence, the winnings from one hit at the higher bet level will cover both bets after the bet reduction. But that isn't really anything new...that's the basic regression play that has been around for years. The X Factor that the AP craps player is adding to the regression concept is an advantage. If your skill and the dice pre-set add up to a positive expectation on the 6 & 8 bets (or whatever bets you may have an advantage in), striking early and locking up the profit may work for you. The regression allows you to lock in a profit, and then go from there. You could leave the bets flat, step increase, parlay, etc. based on your philosophy and skill level.

My ramblings today are strictly theoretical in nature, as I have not taken the time to work out the math on this idea (just too busy building on my dice throwing skill these days). It is not part of my current playbook, but with further investigation and practice, it just may. Another thing that one should consider in an AP regression concept is how high to begin your initial bets. The lowest level should be enough to cover the eventual base bets, but a highly-skilled DC could start at a much higher level to capitalize on a substantial advantage. For me, however, baby steps.

Good luck with the bones.

Out of Commission

Just wanted to drop by and apologize for not posting regularly, but my work on the craps game has been very practice intensive lately. Since it is cold, rainy, or a combination of the two more often than not, practicing my craps throws seems to work out well this time of year. There are a few things I've come across over the last few weeks regarding practice that I would like to share:

• Separate practice out into two distinct segments... 1) fundamentals (grip, release, landing) and 2) gameplay (simulate the course of dice hands).
• Focus on "target practice" for those crowded table conditions where chips may be clogging the layout. In these conditions, it is important to be able to hone in on a clear area of the table at the right distance from the back wall and avoid any chips that will throw the dice off axis.
• During fundamentals practice, become comfortable shooting from different distances and sides in case the dice tables are often crowded when you are able to make it to the casino. There is certainly nothing wrong with having a preferred shooting position, and a skilled DC is better off at less crowded tables, but it always pays to be flexible.
• In situational gameplay practice, focus on making consistent on-axis throws. However, in this segment of practice you have an opportunity to take things to another level by linking dice pre-sets with the situation at hand. The comeout roll should dictate a different set than if you are in the course of a point cycle where your point is a 10. And you would likely be using a different set depending on what the point is and what your betting scheme urges.

Keep practicing and thanks for checking us out!

Ramp It Up

When you've got it, you gotta grab it head on. Some days when the dice are staying on axis more than usual and your stroke is just killing the numbers you expect to see, bells should go off in your head. These are the times to be more aggressive with your betting IF it doesn't rattle your rhythym. I've said in a past post that a pressure technique won't really gain you an advantage over the long run...but that was in the context of random shooting. We're talking about advantage play. Take advantage.

But this isn't a "throw everything out the window" type of aggressive play. It's a calculated, comfortable reinvestment strategy. There's really two ways of approaching a "ramp-up" situation: 1) during the course of a good hand, and 2) in between hands. This thought process is based on sessions where the physical DC skill is clicking, your mental frame is focused and comfortable ("in the zone" if you wish), and your chip count can handle increases in bet levels. This post deals with ramping up my bets during a hot DC hand, whereas the second situation deals more with bankroll/base bet reevaluation. The information presented below is also based on my playing style, which has been covered recently...simply stated, it is a Pass with Odds/Place bet combination. Hardways, Center Bets, Field bets, etc. are not part of my game.

There come times during the course of a hand where Place bets are popping and point(s) are getting hit without much junk in between. If this is due to a sharp, consistent display of on-axis DC shooting (by myself or anyone at the table), then a ramp-up is in order. I look to apply pressure on my bets uniformly: that is, I will press my Odds bet and my Place bet(s) because they should be based on the set being used. Perhaps this is a bit simpler to determine if I am setting and rolling the dice, but there is more opportunity to observe if another DC is shooting...so it does even out a bit.

Uniform pressure comes after my minimum bet spread has been paid for by the casino, but I do feel a need to use my "pocket half-invest half" approach in this case. I've mentioned this philosophy before in a more broader sense of the craps session, but in this circumstance where I should have an inherent advantage, it is an adjustment made in the course of a hot dice hand. In the following example, I'll simply use $10 base bets where the point is 6:

• Bets on Layout: $10 Pass Line / $20 (2X) Odds / $12 Place 8

• Minimum Bet Spread to Cover: $42

At the table, I use one rack for my total chips and the other to put the collected chips from the current dice hand in. If I have been able to rake in at least $42 in the course of the hand, I will know by the amount of money in the "current hand" rail. At this point, I begin to think of pressing the Odds and Place bets in half-steps...yes, half-steps. Not as aggressive as some, but that is my comfort level especially at this stage in my DC work.

This is where my reinvestment strategy begins to unfold. Sticking with the example above and assuming that my current bets have been paid for, my pressure play will consist of $5 more on my Odds and $6 more on my Place bet (in my eyes, this is a one-unit press), totaling $11. Seems rather minor, and it is. But that's the beauty of it. To make this one-unit press, I am looking for at least a $22 profit on the hand...that's half to reinvest and half to stay in the rack. And this is a constant climb for me; one that gets "easier" as the ball gets rolling. Think about it this way: once the first press takes place, that Place 8 bet is up to $18 and will return $21 on a hit...which is pretty much close enough to make the next $11 press play.

It's ONE WAY to harness the power of momentum. This, just like my betting style, is the way that I do things. The point of all this is: develop a skill, earn an advantage, and find a way to profit from it.

My Preferred Betting Scheme

As we've touched on before here, craps is such a unique game in that every player at the table at any given time could hold a different betting/playing philosophy for the same game. Being an Advantage Player (AP) in the game of craps for all intents and purposes directly relates to the skill of controlling the dice (DC). Other games in the casino can be exploited by advantage play, but blackjack and video poker can be the most advantageous. Here's where I'll plug the good people over at the BlackjackInfo forums... http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/forumdisplay.php?f=1

In this post, I want to talk a little about my personal base betting scheme that I use when I am shooting the dice with my DC skill. As this skill is, as always, a work in progress both at home and in the casino, I feel that it is important to not bet beyond my skill. At this point in time, my OAP is about 1:4 to 1:4.5. This level will not let me retire early, but it will give me a fighting chance to make the casino my place of business. On days that I am exhibiting better dexterity than others, my bottom-line bets and amount of odds that I take may increase...but I always begin mentally with base-line play. When others who are not prospective DCs are shooting, I am typically a Place 6 & 8 bettor or perhaps even a spectator.

That being said, my base-line betting format depends entirely on what my current point is. The Hardways Set is my go-to come-out set since it has a 25% chance of rolling a 7 while the 2 and 12 are essentially eliminated. When the point is established, I then switch up my pre-set to the Flying V (or 3V) if it is 5, 6, 8, or 9; or to the Mini V (2V) if it is a 4 or 10. Each paragraph below looks at these individual situations, my betting scheme, and what the long-run odds are with my DC skill:

POINT OF 6 OR 8: Scoring these numbers as the point is a beautiful thing. With my current OAP hovering around 1:4, 1X Odds on this number puts me at about a 3.5% advantage. Obviously, pumping up the odds here steps me to about 5%, 6%, 6.5%, 7%, etc. When warming up, I'm comfortable at 2X Odds...but that mark can increase if the throw is on at that time. I feel that Place bets are part of my repertoire as well. And with either the 6 or 8 as the point, I keep it focused on those numbers. I'll place the opposite number with a advantage of just under 7% and look for repeaters of that number and a quick-hitter on the comeback.

POINT OF 5 OR 9: Interestingly enough, I feel that having these numbers as my point puts me in No Man's Land...not a warm and fuzzy place to be. With a 1:4 OAP, I would need to throw down 3X Odds to gain a slight advantage with the Pass/Odds bet. At this point in time (I hate to say it), I actually pass on the odds bet here and essentially "write off" my Pass Line bet for greener pastures. Sure, I want to hit either the 5 or 9 and try again for a new point number, but Placing the 6 & 8 here can bring about a 7% advantage...that seems a bit more worthy of my cash here. With the 5 or 9, I'm just looking to hit some Place bets and move on.

POINT OF 4 OR 10: It's a bit tough to gain an advantage with these point numbers as well without plopping down 2X or 3X Odds. However, with those Odds amounts and at my skill level, a 3.5% advantage with 3X Odds is tempting if I'm warmed up. Placing the opposite number can give me a nice advantage of just under 6%, so a buy of the number (as long as it is at least $20) can offer a slightlly greater edge for me. If I have to make a choice here for bankroll purposes, I lean towards Placing or Buying the opposite number than pumping up the Odds.

Well, there it is. A look into my mind when I'm at the craps table. Obviously I'm rooting for a 6 or 8 as my point because those are most exploitable numbers for a DC. Why? For starters, they carry the smallest house advantage from a random perspective. And from a DC point of view, the Flying V set, when executed properly, actually presents an opportunity where there are more ways to throw a 6 or 8 (3 ways EACH) than the 7 (2 ways)...an unheard of advantage in this game. Heck, the Flying V and the Mini V can offer the same amount of ways to roll the 5 & 9 or 4 & 10 (2 ways each), respectively, than the 7 (2 ways).

Play with an advantage...and good luck!

Carpe Advantage

Four years of high school Latin have dissolved into this post's title, but hey, that was a long time ago! P.S. This is NOT my picture...but the pagoda ones were :)

This post is a condensed, to-the-point look at Advantage Play (AP) at the craps table. Most of this is probably review or summary for many, but that's OK. Nothing wrong with positive affirmation of advantageous techniques, right? Beyond practice, practice, practice and building critical live experience in the casino, these points all feed into craps AP:

LOOK FOR EMPTY TABLES. The less people playing at the dice table = more opportunities to shoot the dice. If you are capable of playing with an advantage, then you want to be the one with the dice. Sometimes you have to take what you can get when your window to get to the casino is limited, but try to put your work in during the week, in off-hours, or on non-peak weekends.

MINIMIZE BETS ON OTHER PLAYERS. If playing at tables with several (or many) other players, look to minimize your bets on them. Pass Line with single odds is a sub-1% house edge bet, and Place 6 & 8 is a combined 1% house edge play. The ultimate would be to sit out while all other players shoot the dice, but that is iffy...and some houses will see you consistently not making bets and pass the dice by you. Oh yeah, keep your eyes out for other prospective DCs that can be profitable for you (see the "Keep Your Third Eye Open" post).

KNOW THE CASINO'S TABLE CONDITIONS. The length and "bounciness" of a casino's tables can throw a DC off (pun intended) if you are not prepared. Some houses have shorter tables that can be advantageous since the length of your throw doesn't need to be that long. And some have gigantic tables that seem like a country mile from your position to the wall...I'm thinking of the Lakeside Inn in Tahoe to be exact. Of course, a 12' table doesn't necessarily mean better results than a 14' table. Generally, the shorter option is better. But if your typical casino(s) have 14' tables and that's what you practice for, the shorter variety may alter your results. Some tables are bouncier than others...typically, the less bounce the better. And another development, which is a bit more recent, is the placement of some ribbing under the felt up against the wall. This is installed with the similar mindset as the diamond rubber on the wall itself...it's used as a "randomizer".

KNOW HOW TO BET YOUR SETS & PROFIT FROM MODEST HANDS. As stated in the "What's In A Winning DC Hand?" post, a winning dice hand doesn't always mean a 20-roll hand. A quick-point hand and/or one that returns several hits on your Place bets can make a 7-roll hand lucrative...especially if you are betting to your sets. Know the Big 3 sets (Hardways, Flying V, Mini V), when and why you would use them, and bet to their advantages. If your throws are on-axis, then the math will basically take over from there.

MAKE THE CASINO YOUR PLACE OF BUSINESS. In essence, the casino offers games of chance to patrons (obviously, the odds are tilted in the house's favor) by which money is passed from losers to winners...and the rest is casino profit. That simplistic flow is why AP is practiced, practiced more, and put into play in the casino...the bottom line is MAKING MONEY! Don't take the attitude of the casino being the bad guy, but as broker of others' money to you. We probably wouldn't be talking about this if there were no businesses offering what casinos do. Toke the dealers...earn a positive reputation in the session and over the long haul to possibly receive favorable service and to avoid excessive pressure (heat) from the suits. Don't over-tip, but keep it constant when you are shooting. Give the house a reason to want to see you hit your point...money talks! If you feel that the dealers are not doing a good job, are rude, or for whatever reason to not deserve tips, then perhaps a change of venue is warranted. The casino is the AP's place to do business.

Playing Within Yourself

So there's an Asian pagoda in Reading, PA? Who knew? As we were outside enjoying some beautiful weather today, we went exploring and found this awesome pagoda in Reading. Earlier, though, I was searching for a topic to post about since it had been a while. I thought about the last couple sessions at the craps table and recalled a couple lessons solidified by one guy at the table next to me. Finding the pagoda lent a little "zen" ambiance to the subject, it all came together.


We were at Resorts in Atlantic City the other day (nice craps tables I should add), and I was waiting for my shot at the dice. An older gentleman three spots down has the dice, and comes out with a Craps number, 7, and another Craps number. So the guy next to me, who has been betting the inside numbers since I got there, says "You should bet the Horn." I chuckle and pretty much tell him that it's not my bag, but I don't want to get into odds and math in front of the crew. Shooter rolls another Craps number, and my neighbor hits me again with a prompt to play the Horn again. A couple more Craps numbers come out before the point gets established, but I stayed away...and so did the guy next to me.

When the dice get around to me, I'm geared up to shoot. Nine is my point. My neighbor uncharacteristically is on the Don't Pass and loads up with odds against my point. I roll a couple of inside numbers, then nail the point. Guy leaves the table before I get to say goodbye.

The point of this little story, which took about 7 minutes of real-life time, is that a consistent player must play within himself (or herself). The lessons reaffirmed, since they are ones that should be elementary:

• In the first part, I stayed away from betting the Horn because I know that it carries such a high house edge, and making that bet will grind you down. Stick to the core bets with low advantages...ones that can give you and advantage with skill in influencing the dice. Although I missed out on winning a couple Horn bets in this situation, you have to weigh the disadvantage of making that bet any other time. It's a long-run loser.
• Secondly, flip-flopping can leave you empty-handed. My neighbor was betting inside numbers for quite a while, but obviously switched up at the wrong time. There is something to be said about going with the flow of the table, but craps table momentum isn't quite the same as momentum in an NFL game. Plus, he wasn't looking for a potential DC to be standing next to him either. Long story short: I liked the guy, but I wish that he would have stuck with the inside numbers...and I'm sure he did too.

Good luck to you all in 2008. Keep practicing.

Can You Pull The Trigger?

Doesn't life seem to be full of funny circumstances, like when something you haven't heard about in years just pops up here and there all of a sudden? Well, a craps strategy called the Captain's 5-Count is one of those things that has decided to work its way back onto my radar...at least my craps life. So the topic of this post is about "trigger points" and how some betting systems use them to indicate when to make a particular play.

I think we need to first qualify this discussion again by saying that without being able to influence the dice, you cannot create an advantage for the player by simply getting in early, late, or not at all. So, should you be looking for a trigger point to jump in, get out, or even flat-out avoid a shooter? As mentioned above, the Captain's 5-Count tells a player to wait until after the shooter makes the fifth roll of the hand, then bet. There are other variations of this philosophy, including where one would make bets up front, but then take down any non-contract bets at the trigger point (the direct opposite). Another spin-off would be a shooter "qualification process", by which a player waits to see if the shooter is worth while. A shooter can be considered qualified if the point is hit before the trigger point, or even if the shooter makes the point at all.

BETTING AFTER THE TRIGGER POINT

Lets first look at a system like the 5-Count, which has its roots in the mathematical probability of the 7. If this ever-so-important number's chance of appearing is 1 in 6, then a correlation could be drawn that where any dice hand that extends beyond that sixth roll (come out roll 1 + 5 subsequent rolls) is "above average" and should be bet on. By doing this, a Place bettor can miss out on those killer quick 7-outs. This can be a bankroll-saver, but if genuine opportunities are missed, is it truly beneficial for you as a winner? Here are my key issues with this philosophy:

• A shooter is just as likely to roll a 7 at any point in the hand, whether it is the sixth roll, the third, or the tenth. Point being, any bet that has the 7 working against it is always at risk.
• Picking a trigger point to wait for action misses out on what really matters in a dice hand: content. Even if the shooter rolls 7 on that sixth roll, what if your Place bets would have been hit and a profit missed? The probabilities for your numbers being rolled, as well as the 7 are the same before or after a trigger point...and the 7 is always inevitable. If one is looking at standard probabilities, would you not think that the 7 is more "due" after that sixth roll?
• This method pretty much exempts you from playing the Pass Line, at least on the shooter's first point.

BAILING AT THE TRIGGER POINT

Take the previous philosophy and flip it. Say you were going to make Place bets after the point was established, and then pull them down once that trigger point came up...take that fifth roll again for an example. The thought process here really is the opposite of the first, but should hold just as true as it because they both play off of the 1 in 6 probability of the 7 being rolled. Here are my issues with this one though:

• Because a player is limiting themself to playing just the beginning of a hand, good or even huge rolls may be missed out on. And we all know that those instances of "good fortune" are real moneymakers if your money is on the felt.
• Is there a way to account for come-out 7s? If you think about it, a trigger point based on the standard probability of the 7 being rolled should be adjusted when those come-out 7s appear. They are, after all, "out of place". The opposite should be factored in as well, where horn numbers are rolled during the come-out...they should be counted against that approach to the trigger point.
• Again, this point of view is blind to content. Perhaps the player is at a profit during those few rolls before the trigger point...is it a judgement call, or is a pull-out warranted?

QUALIFYING THE SHOOTER

This is a technique that a player would use to determine whether a shooter is worth betting on or against, and possibly even avoiding. Typically, this involves looking for something to happen (like making a point) before or after the trigger point, or just at all. For the most part, this philosophy is pretty much related to the other two concepts so I won't go into much discussion on it. Actually, it makes a great segway for my concluding thoughts...

Using a methodical trigger point to guide your making or pulling of bets isn't really the worst thing that you could do. I honestly feel that your betting scheme should be applied with respect to the lengthy topics I've touched on throughout this blog, regardless of a trigger point. Whether the trigger is obviously arbitrary (say, roll #8) or based on math (roll #6), a play-all mentality should capture a piece of the long-range probabilities of the dice. And those probabilities can equate to a low house advantage if the core bets are made...but skilled influence on the dice can even flip the odds to your favor (as you should well know around here). The point is: be consistent, but do it for a reason. Observe the flow of the game, look into the content of the dice hand, secure a profit wherever possible, and (naturally) practice your skill.

What's In A Winning DC Hand?

I'm going to approach this post from a conceptual standpoint, in which we look at what really makes a successful controlled dice hand in the casino. Of course, a realistic point of view says that any dice hand that produces a profit for you is successful. But let's dig deeper with a few questions. Some of the points I'll bring up may be re-runs from earlier, but I feel that they are critical to understanding what it truly means to control the dice effectively.

QUESTION #1: What does the Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) tell you? This metric can give an impression of whether your rolling is affecting the standard probability of the 7 (1 in 6). A higher SRR can infer that you are reducing the frequency of the 7 being rolled. SRR does NOT say if you are keeping the dice on axis, and it does NOT represent whether "desirable" numbers are being rolled before the 7-out. In this context, desirable = profitable.

QUESTION #2: What does the On-Axis Proportion (OAP) tell you? OK, so maybe I made this term up, but I like what it represents. OAP is something that is a necessary metric in all of the math I've derived for potential effects of DC on bets. It can be an assessment tool that shows just how skillful of a DC you are with a simple ratio of on-axis rolls to total rolls (1 in 3 is solid). Depending on what your OAP is, you should have a general idea of what bets can generate an advantage depending on the pre-set. This measure is NOT a ratio of 7s to rolls (SRR). Remember, not all 7s rolled are bad ones...they can be profitable on come-out rolls, so why should they be avoided in such circumstances?

QUESTION #3: What is the primary objective for DC? This answer is very simple...make as much money as possible!!! Keeping the dice on a pre-set axis can reduce their potential outcomes to 16, rather than 36. The probabilities of the numbers that can be rolled are changed as well. The more frequently (higher OAP) the dice are kept on axis, the closer you can bring random probabilities to those of the pre-set. And those modified probabilities are what you should be betting for (see all those other posts). This ushers in a high premium on practicing at home. There are some easy alternatives to having to buy a craps table for your house that I want to get into here soon. But for now, find a way and focus on what really matters...keeping the dice on axis.

Taking a step away from these three questions, it's important that we put the effects of DC in perspective. It is very unreasonable to expect 20- and 30-roll hands more often than not, especially when the lowest probability of a 7 being rolled with DC is 12.5% (1 in 8). The focus needs to be on the substance of the dice hand. I'm sure we've all seen some 6-roll hands that were better than some 15-roll hands. How can a hand 40% shorter than another be better? Maybe there were a lot of horn numbers in the mix. Perhaps a vast majority of the rolls were outside numbers, and you bet inside. Or maybe there was an outside point number, and all that came out were inside numbers and the point didn't pass. DC is about boiling down the outcomes of the dice and betting at those numbers, which should correlate to a modest or even substantial advantage. But it's hard to do that without keeping the dice on axis regularly and consistently.

Here are my 3 keys to DC success...short and sweet:
1. Hone your skill with practice (increase that OAP).
2. Bet according to your skill and the situation.
3. Learn to spot other DCs at the table.


MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Keep Your Third Eye Open

I have to start out this post by apologizing for not keeping a steady stream of posts coming lately. Between the holidays, traveling, and a little something called my day job, things have been really busy. Now that we're through all that...

There's something about casino games, and craps in particular, that requires a lot of observation and somewhat of an instinct to make critical decisions in the course of the game. Now you may be thinking "wait a minute, much of the info on this site preaches about having a plan and sticking to the most favorable bets!" That is absolutely true, and should not fundamentally change. But some slight adjustments on the fly can help you take advantage of some key and/or rare opportunities.

In an ideal world, you'd know when the table was about to heat up...and exactly what bets you need out there to take advantage. Of course, you'd also know when the 7-out was coming. But for us mere mortals, a considerable amount of time around the game can yield a bit of instinct into the game. This shouldn't be mixed up with superstition, but a player needs to be able to capitalize on lucky streaks.

For example, if the 6 & 8 have rolled a total of five times in a short period of time and you've Placed them for $12 each, total payoffs amount to $70. Well, your initial $24 investment has been more than paid for (profit of $46) and it may be time to think about "reinvesting some dividends" with some pressure, so to speak. The hand could end on the next roll or it could go on for a dozen more chucks of the dice...that is an unknown. What we do know is that the 6 & 8 combo is a solid bet and very favorable short-term variance is being experience. Observe this trend and take action, but don't go overboard or overestimate how hot the table is. It's a judgement call, but discipline, a level head, and a solid understanding of the game can help you make the right move more often than not.

Another way to be observant deals with spotting fellow DCs at your table. It doesn't always have to be you as the shooter to make a profit at the table, so why not be on the lookout for other folks with the same mission as you? Just like the discussion earlier on this site about the basic principles of DC, you should be looking for these things from prospective DCs:

1. Pre-set (remember that there are several ways to arrange any particular set)
2. Consistent release
3. Targeted & controlled landing
4. Dominant numbers

If you do spot a fellow DC, take note of what he/she is betting. There's probably a good reason why they are using a particular scheme, and meshing that into your bet combinations should be considered an option.

There's often a lot going on at a typical dice table, and being observant often means cutting through a lot of the smokescreen (figuratively and literally) to find out what you want to know. Acclimate yourself to the casino, the game, and the dealers...and always be ready!

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Place Bet Combos and DC

The tables below give us a perspective into bet combinations and the potential effect from setting the dice to the Flying V and Mini V sets, which we have established as the best for rolling point and Place bet numbers. As we've discovered before, combining Place bets can often offer a lower house edge than with singular bets. The array of bet combinations provided may seem awkward, but one has to consider the fact that your Place bets will likely be accompanied by a Pass Line bet (a Line bet of some sort is required for you to shoot).

This look at things throws DC into the mix. Depending on your skill level (quantified by the 1 in X on-axis rate), many of these combinations can be advantageous...of course, some are moreso than others. In the tables, the highlighted cells refer to player-favorable situations. Green-highlighted cells represent an advantage higher in that set than the other, whereas blue-highlighted cells represent an advantage lower than the other set.


A simple overview of this information shows us that the Flying V can offer a higher advantage for the player when it comes to any combination of Place bets that involve the 6 and/or 8. The Mini V is in the same situation, but with combos that incorporate the 4 and/or 10. If the combination is strictly the 5 & 9, both of these sets are evenly matched for the job.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!

Odds and DC

Back when we looked at the different sets and their strengths, it was determined that the Hardways set was prime for point numbers of 6 &8, Flying V or Mini V for point numbers of 5 & 9, and Mini V for point numbers of 4 & 10. At that time, the Pass Line bet, after it traveled to the point number, was evaluated with only single odds. Below are tables for the three number pairs, with yellow-highlghted cells where a player can gain advantage depending on the DC skill (quantified by by the "1 in X" figure).

Point of 6/8: (chart below should read "Flying V Set"...my apologies)

Point of 5/9:

Point of 4/10:

In review of the tables, you can see that point numbers of 6 & 8 bring the most potential profit for the player, which is in part due to the lower house edge on the bet without any influence. Point numbers of 5 & 9 and 4 & 10 are lower, but hold some interesting qualities. These points can offer an advantage if the player's skill is solid enough AND when enough odds are taken. Here is where understanding the sets' strengths and properly adjusting your odds bets to gain or increase your edge is important. This is the knowledge that must accompany the physical skill of the Advantage Player.

Dice Set Quick Reference

This post is meant to be a quick reference for the six dice sets we've explored on this blog. If you take a look at the first table below, there are the sets with the axis numbers listed underneath. This, perhaps, is the best way to remember multiple ways to arrange a pre-set at the casino. Multiple arrangements can help you to cover your skill with a quick setup and a non-repetitive display of the dice. You'll also see the number of possible combinations for each of the outcomes (remember 36 total for a random throw; 16 for a controlled on-axis throw), including hardways.

This table translates the sets' outcome probabilities into percentages. Trying to use a little color, the blue cells mark those numbers that have a higher chance of being rolled in an on-axis throw for the respective set. Orange cells note the same thing, but are colored differently because it refers to the 7.

The two posts regarding the Hardways, Flying V, and Mini V sets do a more thorough job to lay out what the three key sets are good for. An easy way to remember the utility of these sets is:

• COME OUT: Hardways Set
• POINT/PLACE 6 & 8: Flying V
• POINT/PLACE 5 & 9: Flying V or Mini V
• POINT/PLACE 4 & 10: Mini V